Modelling Rainfed Pearl Millet Yield Sensitivity to Abiotic Stresses in Semi-Arid Central Tanzania, Eastern Africa

Festo Richard Silungwe, Frieder Graef, Sonoko Dorothea Bellingrath-Kimura, Emmanuel A Chilagane, Siza Donald Tumbo, Fredrick Cassian Kahimba and Marcos Alberto Lana
Additional contact information
Festo Richard Silungwe: Leibniz Center for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF), Eberswalder Straße, 84, 15374 Müncheberg, Germany
Frieder Graef: Humboldt Universität zu Berlin, Faculty of Life Sciences, Unter den Linden 6, 10099 Berlin, Germany
Sonoko Dorothea Bellingrath-Kimura: Leibniz Center for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF), Eberswalder Straße, 84, 15374 Müncheberg, Germany
Emmanuel A Chilagane: Tanzania Agricultural Research Institute, Uyole Research Centre, P.O. Box 400, Mbeya, Tanzania
Siza Donald Tumbo: Sokoine University of Agriculture, P.O. Box 3003, CHUO KIKUU, Morogoro 3003, Tanzania
Fredrick Cassian Kahimba: Sokoine University of Agriculture, P.O. Box 3003, CHUO KIKUU, Morogoro 3003, Tanzania
Marcos Alberto Lana: Crop Production Ecology, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Ulls väg 16, 75007 Uppsala, Sweden

Sustainability, 2019, vol. 11, issue 16, 1-18

Abstract: Drought and heat-tolerant crops, such as Pearl millet ( Pennisetum glaucum ), are priority crops for fighting hunger in semi-arid regions. Assessing its performance under future climate scenarios is critical for determining its resilience and sustainability. Field experiments were conducted over two consecutive seasons (2015/2016 and 2016/2017) to determine the yield responses of the crop (pearl millet variety “Okoa”) to microdose fertilizer application in a semi-arid region of Tanzania. Data from the experiment were used to calibrate and validate the DSSAT model (CERES Millet). Subsequently, the model evaluated synthetic climate change scenarios for temperature increments and precipitation changes based on historic observations (2010–2018). Temperature increases of +0.5 to +3.0 °C (from baseline), under non-fertilized (NF) and fertilizer microdose (MD) conditions were used to evaluate nine planting dates of pearl millet from early (5 December) to late planting (25 February), based on increments of 10 days. The planting date with the highest yields was subjected to 49 synthetic scenarios of climate change for temperature increments and precipitation changes (of −30% up to +30% from baseline) to simulate yield responses. Results show that the model reproduced the phenology and yield, indicating a very good performance. Model simulations indicate that temperature increases negatively affected yields for all planting dates under NF and MD. Early and late planting windows were more negatively affected than the normal planting window, implying that temperature increases reduced the length of effective planting window for achieving high yields in both NF and MD. Farmers must adjust their planting timing, while the timely availability of seeds and fertilizer is critical. Precipitation increases had a positive effect on yields under all tested temperature increments, but Okoa cultivar only has steady yield increases up to a maximum of 1.5 °C, beyond which yields decline. This informs the need for further breeding or testing of other cultivars that are more heat tolerant. However, under MD, the temperature increments and precipitation change scenarios are higher than under NF, indicating a high potential of yield improvement under MD, especially with precipitation increases. Further investigation should focus on other cropping strategies such as the use of in-field rainwater harvesting and heat-tolerant cultivars to mitigate the effects of temperature increase and change in precipitation on pearl millet yield.

Keywords: Pearl millet; DSSAT-CERES Millet; planting dates; climate change; microdose (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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