Carbon Emissions Peak Prediction and the Reduction Pathway in Buildings during Operation in Jilin Province Based on LEAP

Haiyan Duan, Shipei Zhang, Siying Duan, Weicheng Zhang, Zhiyuan Duan, Shuo Wang, Junnian Song and Xian’en Wang
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Haiyan Duan: College of New Energy and Environment, Jilin University, Changchun 130012, China
Shipei Zhang: College of New Energy and Environment, Jilin University, Changchun 130012, China
Siying Duan: College of New Energy and Environment, Jilin University, Changchun 130012, China
Weicheng Zhang: College of New Energy and Environment, Jilin University, Changchun 130012, China
Zhiyuan Duan: College of New Energy and Environment, Jilin University, Changchun 130012, China
Shuo Wang: College of New Energy and Environment, Jilin University, Changchun 130012, China
Junnian Song: College of New Energy and Environment, Jilin University, Changchun 130012, China
Xian’en Wang: College of New Energy and Environment, Jilin University, Changchun 130012, China

Sustainability, 2019, vol. 11, issue 17, 1-23

Abstract: The building sector has gradually become a major contributor of carbon emissions in recent years. Its carbon emissions, which result from the long heating period and considerable consumption of coal in residential buildings during operation, must be reduced. To this end, the long-range energy alternatives planning system was adopted for the forecasting of carbon emissions in baseline scenarios, energy-saving, energy-saving–low-carbon, and low-carbon. On the basis of these predictions, the contributions of heating, cooling, cooking, illumination, washing, and other activities to carbon emissions were analyzed. The influencing factors in the reduction of carbon emissions from residential buildings in a cold region were identified. The results showed that energy-saving–low-carbon was the optimal scenario to reduce carbon emissions. Meanwhile, carbon emissions will peak in 2030, with a value of 42.06 Mt under the same scenario. As the top three influencing factors, heating, cooling, and cooking contribute 55.74%, 18.86%, and 17.29% of carbon emissions, respectively. Sensitivity results showed the differential effects of 32 factors on the reduction of carbon emissions in residential buildings. Carbon emissions could be reduced by 17.41%, 35.51%, 31.10%, and 14.10% by controlling the building scale, heating, cooling, and cooking, respectively. To this end, seven factors, including the rationing of central heating, were identified. Then, pathways to reducing carbon emissions were proposed under different scenarios. The present research fills the gap between reality and the predicted pathway, considering the heterogeneity of the climate.

Keywords: building; cold region; reducing carbon emission; long-energy alternatives planning (LEAP) system; terminal energy use; Jilin Province (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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