Scenario Analysis on Energy Consumption and CO 2 Emissions Reduction Potential in Building Heating Sector at Community Level

Chuan Tian, Guohui Feng, Shuai Li and Fuqiang Xu
Additional contact information
Chuan Tian: School of Municipal and Environmental Engineering, Shenyang Jianzhu University, Shenyang 110168, Liaoning, China
Guohui Feng: School of Municipal and Environmental Engineering, Shenyang Jianzhu University, Shenyang 110168, Liaoning, China
Shuai Li: State Grid Liaoning Electric Power Company Limited Economic Research Institute, Shenyang 110168, Liaoning, China
Fuqiang Xu: Shaanxi Country Garden Real Estate Co. Ltd, Xi’an 727400, Shaanxi, China

Sustainability, 2019, vol. 11, issue 19, 1-26

Abstract: Energy consumption and carbon emissions of building heating are increasing rapidly. Taking Liaobin coastal economic zone as an example, two scenarios are built to analyze the potential of energy consumption and CO 2 emissions reduction from the aspects of laws, regulations, policies and planning. The baseline scenario refers to the traditional way of energy planning and the community energy planning scenario seeks to apply community energy planning within the zone. Energy consumption and CO 2 emission are forecast in two scenarios with the driving factors including GDP growth, changes in population size, energy structure adjustment, energy technology progress, and increase of energy efficiency. To improve accuracy of future GDP and population data prediction, an ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model) (1,1,1) model is introduced into GDP prediction and a logistics model is introduced into population prediction. Results show that compared with the baseline scenario, energy consumption levels in the community energy planning scenario are reduced by 140% and CO 2 emission levels are reduced by 45%; the short-term and long-term driving factors are analyzed. Policy implications are given for energy conservation and environmental protection.

Keywords: community energy planning; LEAP model; energy consumption; carbon emission; scenario analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/11/19/5392/pdf (application/pdf)
https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/11/19/5392/ (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:11:y:2019:i:19:p:5392-:d:271967

Access Statistics for this article

Sustainability is currently edited by Ms. Alexandra Wu

More articles in Sustainability from MDPI
Bibliographic data for series maintained by MDPI Indexing Manager ().