Supply Chain Risk of Obsolescence at Simultaneous Robust Perturbations

Francisco Campuzano-Bolarín, Fulgencio Marín-García, José Andrés Moreno-Nicolás, Marija Bogataj and David Bogataj
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Francisco Campuzano-Bolarín: Campus Muralla del Mar, Universidad Politécnica de Cartagena, 30202 Cartagena (Murcia), Spain
Fulgencio Marín-García: Campus Muralla del Mar, Universidad Politécnica de Cartagena, 30202 Cartagena (Murcia), Spain
José Andrés Moreno-Nicolás: Campus Muralla del Mar, Universidad Politécnica de Cartagena, 30202 Cartagena (Murcia), Spain
Marija Bogataj: SEB & INRISK, University of Ljubljana, 1000 Ljubljana, Slovenia
David Bogataj: Department of Management and Engineering, Università di Padova, Str. S. Nicola, 3-36100 Vicenza, Italy

Sustainability, 2019, vol. 11, issue 19, 1-18

Abstract: The earlier planning methods of supply chains ( SC ) in the skeleton of the extended material requirements planning ( EMRP ), where the time horizon of the reverse Laplace is infinite, were not convenient to estimate the impact of the technical obsolescence of the product or technology involved, which has economic, environmental, and social consequences. Therefore, the perturbations of timing are presented until the possible obsolescence, with parallel execution of the network simulation model ( NSM ) to evaluate the impact of the finite lifespan on the value of the chain. The EMRP , as well as the NSM , are based on the skeleton of the material requirements planning model, where delays and their perturbations are presented transparently. Contrary to the previous studies of the net present value ( NPV ) in the EMRP skeleton, where the infinite horizon is assumed, the impact of shortening the horizon of activities is shown here, in order to also evaluate the risk of financing investments in the SC with a shorter lifespan of products or technology. Owing to the simultaneous appearances of the stochastic variables, the parallel execution and exchanging of data, using NSM is advised. The procedures for estimation of correction factors of the NPV and their values are given.

Keywords: risk management; obsolescence; supply chain financing (SCF); perturbed delays; network simulation model; net present value; sustainable supply chain (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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