Examining the Interdependence between the Exchange Rates of China and ASEAN Countries: A Canonical Vine Copula Approach

Jianxu Liu, Mengjiao Wang and Songsak Sriboonchitta
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Jianxu Liu: Faculty of Economics, Shandong University of Finance and Economics, Jinan 250000, China
Mengjiao Wang: Faculty of Economics, Chiang Mai University, Chiang Mai 50200, Thailand
Songsak Sriboonchitta: Faculty of Economics, Chiang Mai University, Chiang Mai 50200, Thailand

Sustainability, 2019, vol. 11, issue 19, 1-20

Abstract: Based on the canonical vine (C-vine) copula approach, this paper examines the interdependence between the exchange rates of the Chinese Yuan (CNY) and the currencies of major Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries. The differences in the dependence structure and degree between currencies before and after the Belt and Road (B&R) Initiative were compared in order to investigate the changing role of the Renminbi (RMB) in the ASEAN foreign exchange markets. The results indicate a positive dependence between the exchange rate returns of CNY and the currencies of ASEAN countries and show the rising power of RMB in the regional currency markets after the B&R Initiative was launched. Besides this, the Malaysian Ringgit proved to be most relevant to the other ASEAN currencies, thus playing an important role in the stability of regional financial markets. Moreover, evidence of tail dependence was found in the returns of three currency pairs after the B&R Initiative, which implies the presence of asymmetric dependence between exchange rates. The results from time-varying C-vine copulas further confirmed the robustness of the results from the static C-vine copulas.

Keywords: C-vine copulas; dependence structure; the Belt and Road Initiative; RMB; ASEAN currencies; tail dependence (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (9)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:11:y:2019:i:19:p:5487-:d:273383

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