Equilibrium between Road Traffic Congestion and Low-Carbon Economy: A Case Study from Beijing, China

Shuxia Yang, Yu Ji, Di Zhang and Jing Fu
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Shuxia Yang: Beijing Key Laboratory of New Energy and Low-Carbon Development, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China
Yu Ji: School of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China
Di Zhang: School of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China
Jing Fu: School of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China

Sustainability, 2019, vol. 11, issue 1, 1-22

Abstract: China has allocated low-carbon targets into all regions and trades, and road traffic also has its own emission reduction targets. Congestion may increase carbon emissions from road traffic. It is worthwhile to study whether it is possible to achieve the goal of road traffic reduction by controlling congestion; that is, to achieve the equilibrium between traffic congestion and a low-carbon economy. The innovation of this paper is mainly reflected in the innovative topic selection, the introduction of a traffic index, and the establishment of the first traffic congestion and low-carbon economic equilibrium model. First, the relevant calculation method of the traffic index is introduced, and the traffic index is used to quantify the traffic congestion degree. Using the traffic index, GDP, and road passenger traffic volume, a nonlinear regression model of road traffic carbon emissions is constructed. Then, the calculation method of the carbon emission intensity of road traffic in the region is proposed. The equilibrium model of traffic congestion and a low-carbon economy is constructed to look for the degree of road traffic congestion that may occur under the permitted carbon emission intensity. Taking Beijing, where electric vehicles account for less than 3% of the total vehicles, as an example, it is difficult to achieve the equilibrium target between road traffic congestion and a low-carbon economy by alleviating traffic congestion in 2020. If the target of traffic carbon emission reduction in 2020 is adjusted from 40%–45% to 19.7% based on 2005, the equilibrium will be achieved. A negative correlation between road traffic carbon emissions and the reciprocal of the traffic index (1/TI) is found after eliminating the effects of GDP and PTV (road passenger traffic volume). As the traffic index decreases by units, the carbon emission reduction accelerates. The results show that carbon reduction targets cannot be simply allocated to various industries. The results of the research on the degree of the impact of traffic congestion on carbon emissions can be used as a basis for carbon reduction decisions of the traffic sector. The research method of this paper can provide a reference for the study of the equilibrium of traffic congestion and a low-carbon economy in other regions.

Keywords: Traffic congestion; low-carbon economy; equilibrium; carbon emission reduction; multivariate nonlinear regression model; road traffic carbon emissions (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (7)

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