A Multivariate Modeling Analysis of Commuters’ Non-Work Activity Allocations in Xiaoshan District of Hangzhou, China

Xin Guan, Xin Ye, Cheng Shi and Yajie Zou
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Xin Guan: Key Laboratory of Road and Traffic Engineering of Ministry of Education, College of Transportation Engineering, Tongji University, Shanghai 201804, China
Xin Ye: Key Laboratory of Road and Traffic Engineering of Ministry of Education, College of Transportation Engineering, Tongji University, Shanghai 201804, China
Cheng Shi: College of Architecture and Urban Planning, Tongji University, Shanghai 200092, China
Yajie Zou: Key Laboratory of Road and Traffic Engineering of Ministry of Education, College of Transportation Engineering, Tongji University, Shanghai 201804, China

Sustainability, 2019, vol. 11, issue 20, 1-19

Abstract: This paper investigates the outdoor non-work activity allocation behaviors of commuters in Xiaoshan District of Hangzhou, China, as well as the underlying relationship among different types of outdoor non-work activities. As per their commute and work schedules, commuters’ outdoor non-work activities are classified into six categories and considered as binary dependent variables for modeling analysis, including from home before work, on commute way from home to work, going home during work, going out (not going home) during work, on commute way from work back home, and from home after work. Independent variables include commute attributes, work schedules, sociodemographic attributes, and built-environmental attributes. A multivariate probit model is developed to explore the effects of explanatory variables and capture correlations among unobserved influential factors. The model estimation results show that daily work time, education years, and traffic zone have substantial impacts on commuters’ non-work activity allocations. As for the underlying relationship among unobserved factors, a positive correlation is found between the outdoor non-work activities on commute way to and from work, indicating a mutually promotive relationship. All other correlations are negative, indicating other types of non-work activities are mutually substitutive. These findings will help to better understand commuters’ behaviors of outdoor activity arrangement subject to the time-space constraint from fixed work schedules, and shed some light on the mechanism of complex work tour formation, so as to guide the development of activity-based travel demand models for commuters.

Keywords: outdoor non-work activities; multivariate probit model; composite marginal likelihood; error correlation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
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