The Impact of Land Use/Land Cover Change (LULCC) on Water Resources in a Tropical Catchment in Tanzania under Different Climate Change Scenarios

Kristian Näschen, Bernd Diekkrüger, Mariele Evers, Britta Höllermann, Stefanie Steinbach and Frank Thonfeld
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Kristian Näschen: Department of Geography, University of Bonn, Meckenheimer Allee 166, 53115 Bonn, Germany
Bernd Diekkrüger: Department of Geography, University of Bonn, Meckenheimer Allee 166, 53115 Bonn, Germany
Mariele Evers: Department of Geography, University of Bonn, Meckenheimer Allee 166, 53115 Bonn, Germany
Britta Höllermann: Department of Geography, University of Bonn, Meckenheimer Allee 166, 53115 Bonn, Germany
Stefanie Steinbach: Department of Geography, University of Bonn, Meckenheimer Allee 166, 53115 Bonn, Germany
Frank Thonfeld: German Remote Sensing Data Center (DFD), German Aerospace Center (DLR), Münchener Strasse 20, 82234 Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany

Sustainability, 2019, vol. 11, issue 24, 1-28

Abstract: Many parts of sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are prone to land use and land cover change (LULCC). In many cases, natural systems are converted into agricultural land to feed the growing population. However, despite climate change being a major focus nowadays, the impacts of these conversions on water resources, which are essential for agricultural production, is still often neglected, jeopardizing the sustainability of the socio-ecological system. This study investigates historic land use/land cover (LULC) patterns as well as potential future LULCC and its effect on water quantities in a complex tropical catchment in Tanzania. It then compares the results using two climate change scenarios. The Land Change Modeler (LCM) is used to analyze and to project LULC patterns until 2030 and the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is utilized to simulate the water balance under various LULC conditions. Results show decreasing low flows by 6–8% for the LULC scenarios, whereas high flows increase by up to 84% for the combined LULC and climate change scenarios. The effect of climate change is stronger compared to the effect of LULCC, but also contains higher uncertainties. The effects of LULCC are more distinct, although crop specific effects show diverging effects on water balance components. This study develops a methodology for quantifying the impact of land use and climate change and therefore contributes to the sustainable management of the investigated catchment, as it shows the impact of environmental change on hydrological extremes (low flow and floods) and determines hot spots, which are critical for environmental development.

Keywords: SWAT model; Land Change Modeler; Scenario analysis; Extreme flows; Tanzania; Kilombero (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

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