Exploring the Driving Forces and Reduction Potential of Industrial Energy-Related CO 2 Emissions during 2001–2030: A Case Study for Henan Province, China

Lei Liu, Ke Wang, Shanshan Wang, Ruiqin Zhang and Xiaoyan Tang
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Lei Liu: College of Chemistry and Molecular Engineering, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou 450001, China
Ke Wang: College of Chemistry and Molecular Engineering, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou 450001, China
Shanshan Wang: College of Chemistry and Molecular Engineering, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou 450001, China
Ruiqin Zhang: College of Chemistry and Molecular Engineering, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou 450001, China
Xiaoyan Tang: Research Institute of Environmental Science, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou 450001, China

Sustainability, 2019, vol. 11, issue 4, 1-25

Abstract: In China, the industrial sector is the main contributor to economic development and CO 2 emissions, especially for the developing regional provinces. This study employs the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) approach to decompose industrial energy-related CO 2 emission into eight factors during 2001–2015 for Henan Province. Furthermore, the future CO 2 emissions under different scenarios (Business as Usual (BAU), Efficiency Improvement (EI), Structural Optimization (SO), R&D Input (RD), and Comprehensive Policy (CP) scenarios) over 2016–2030 are projected. The results indicate that among these factors, the economic output, R&D intensity, investment intensity, and energy structure are the drivers for increasing CO 2 emissions over the entire period, with the contribution of 293, 83, 80, and 1% of the total CO 2 emissions changes, respectively. Conversely, the energy intensity, R&D efficiency, and industrial internal structure can decrease CO 2 emissions with contributions of –86, –163, and –108% to the changes, respectively. Under the five scenarios, CO 2 emissions in 2030 will reach 1222, 1079, 793, 987, and 638 Mt with an annual growth rate of 4.7%, 3.8%, 1.8%, 3.3%, and 0.4%, respectively. In particular, the CO 2 emission peak for SO and CP scenarios is observed before 2030. Finally, some policy implications are suggested to further mitigate industrial emissions.

Keywords: Industrial sector; CO2 mitigation potential; LMDI decomposition; Scenario analysis; China; Henan Province (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:11:y:2019:i:4:p:1176-:d:208451

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