A Forecast and Mitigation Model of Construction Performance by Assessing Detailed Engineering Maturity at Key Milestones for Offshore EPC Mega-Projects

Myung-Hun Kim, Eul-Bum Lee and Han-Suk Choi
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Myung-Hun Kim: Graduate Institute of Ferrous Technology (GIFT), Pohang University of Science and Technology (POSTECH), 77 Cheongam-Ro, Nam-Ku, Pohang 37673, Korea
Eul-Bum Lee: Graduate Institute of Ferrous Technology (GIFT), Pohang University of Science and Technology (POSTECH), 77 Cheongam-Ro, Nam-Ku, Pohang 37673, Korea
Han-Suk Choi: Graduate Institute of Ferrous Technology (GIFT), Pohang University of Science and Technology (POSTECH), 77 Cheongam-Ro, Nam-Ku, Pohang 37673, Korea

Sustainability, 2019, vol. 11, issue 5, 1-21

Abstract: The main subject of this research is to develop a forecast and mitigation model of schedule and cost performance during a detailed engineering stage of offshore engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) projects. The weight factors of major elements in detailed engineering completion rating index system (DECRIS) were measured using a fuzzy inference system (FIS) and an analytic hierarchy process (AHP). At five key engineering milestones, from an EPC contract being awarded to the start of construction, detailed engineering maturities were assessed in fourteen historical offshore EPC projects using the DECRIS model. DECRIS cutoff scores for successful project execution were defined at the key engineering milestones. A schedule and cost performance was forecasted and validated through comparison of DECRIS and other models using statistical confidence of a fuzzy set qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA) and a regression analysis. As a mitigation method for engineering risks to EPC contractors, engineering resource enhancement is recommended for trade-off optimization of cost overrun using a Monte Carlo simulation. The main contribution of this research is that EPC contractors could continuously forecast construction costs and schedule performance utilizing the DECRIS model, and could review the adequacy of engineering resources, assessing the trade-off between said resources and cost/schedule risk mitigation.

Keywords: construction cost and schedule performance; fuzzy inference system; analytic hierarchy process; fuzzy set quantitative comparative analysis; offshore mega-project; engineering; procurement and construction (EPC) project; DECRIS; risk mitigation plan (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (7)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:11:y:2019:i:5:p:1256-:d:209464

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