Parametric Assessment of Seasonal Drought Risk to Crop Production in Bangladesh

Mahiuddin Alamgir, Morteza Mohsenipour, Rajab Homsi, Xiaojun Wang, Shamsuddin Shahid, Mohammed Sanusi Shiru, Nor Eliza Alias and Ali Yuzir
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Mahiuddin Alamgir: Department of Water and Environmental Engineering, School of Civil Engineering, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (UTM), 81310 Johor Bahru, Malaysia
Morteza Mohsenipour: Department of Water and Environmental Engineering, School of Civil Engineering, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (UTM), 81310 Johor Bahru, Malaysia
Rajab Homsi: Department of Water and Environmental Engineering, School of Civil Engineering, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (UTM), 81310 Johor Bahru, Malaysia
Xiaojun Wang: State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, Nanjing 210029, China
Shamsuddin Shahid: Department of Water and Environmental Engineering, School of Civil Engineering, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (UTM), 81310 Johor Bahru, Malaysia
Mohammed Sanusi Shiru: Department of Water and Environmental Engineering, School of Civil Engineering, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (UTM), 81310 Johor Bahru, Malaysia
Nor Eliza Alias: Department of Water and Environmental Engineering, School of Civil Engineering, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (UTM), 81310 Johor Bahru, Malaysia
Ali Yuzir: Disaster Preparedness and Prevention center, Malaysian-Japan International Institute of Technology (MJIIT), UTM Kuala Lumpur, Jalan Sultan Yahya Petra (Jalan Semarak), Kuala Lumpur 54100, Malaysia

Sustainability, 2019, vol. 11, issue 5, 1-17

Abstract: Droughts are more damaging when they occur during crop growing season. This research assessed the spatial distribution of drought risks to crops in Bangladesh. Catastrophe theory-based weighting method was used to estimate drought hazard, exposure, and risk by avoiding potential human bias. Ten major crops, including eight different types of rice, wheat, and potato, were selected for evaluation of drought risk. Results showed that 32.4%, 27.2%, and 16.2% of land in Bangladesh is prone to extreme Kharif (May-October), Rabi (November-April), and pre-Kharif (March-May) droughts, respectively. Among the major crops, Hybrid Boro rice cultivated in 18.2% of the area is found to be highly vulnerable to droughts, which is followed by High Yield Varity (HYV) Boro (16.9%), Transplant Aman (16.4%), HYV Aman (14.1%), and Basic Aman (12.4%) rice. Hybrid Boro rice in 12 districts, different varieties of Aman rice in 10 districts, and HYV Boro rice in 9 districts, mostly located in the north and northwest of Bangladesh, are exposed to high risk of droughts. High frequency of droughts and use of more land for agriculture have made the region highly prone to droughts. The methodology adopted in this study can be utilized for unbiased estimation of drought risk in agriculture in order to adopt necessary risk reduction measures.

Keywords: seasonal droughts; catastrophe theory; crop vulnerability; drought risk; Bangladesh (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

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