Risk Analysis of Chemical Plant Explosion Accidents Based on Bayesian Network

Rongchen Zhu, Xin Li, Xiaofeng Hu and Deshui Hu
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Rongchen Zhu: School of Information Technology and Network Security, People’s Public Security University of China, Beijing 102628, China
Xin Li: School of Information Technology and Network Security, People’s Public Security University of China, Beijing 102628, China
Xiaofeng Hu: School of Information Technology and Network Security, People’s Public Security University of China, Beijing 102628, China
Deshui Hu: School of Information Technology and Network Security, People’s Public Security University of China, Beijing 102628, China

Sustainability, 2019, vol. 12, issue 1, 1-20

Abstract: Many chemical plant explosion accidents occur along with the development of the chemical industry. Meanwhile, the interaction and influence of various factors significantly increase the uncertainty of the evolution process of such accidents. This paper presents a framework to dynamically evaluate chemical plant explosion accidents. We propose twelve nodes to represent accident evolution and establish a Bayesian network model for chemical plant explosion accidents, combining historical data with expert experience to support the prevention, management, and real-time warning. Hypothetical scenarios and catastrophic explosion scenarios were analyzed by setting different combinations of states for nodes. Moreover, the impacts of factors such as factory type, material form, accident equipment, the emergency response on casualty and property loss are evaluated. We find that sensitivity of property loss and casualties to factory type and ongoing work are less significant; the equipment factors result in more casualties than that from personnel factors; the impact of emergency response on the accident results is significant; equipment safety management and personnel safety training are the most important measures to prevent chemical plant explosion risks.

Keywords: risk analysis; chemical plant explosion; Bayesian network (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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