Industry-Specific and Macroeconomic Determinants of Non-Performing Loans: A Comparative Analysis of ARDL and VECM

Changjun Zheng, Probir Kumar Bhowmik and Niluthpaul Sarker
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Changjun Zheng: School of Management, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430074, China
Probir Kumar Bhowmik: School of Management, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430074, China
Niluthpaul Sarker: Department of Accounting and Information Systems, Jagannath University, Dhaka 1100, Bangladesh

Sustainability, 2019, vol. 12, issue 1, 1-17

Abstract: With the growth of an economy, the banking industry expands and the competitiveness becomes intense with the increased number of banks in the economy. The objective of this research was to discover the influence of industry-specific and macroeconomic determinants of non-performing loans (NPLs) in the entire banking system of Bangladesh. We performed an analysis for the period from 1979 to 2018 by an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model and checked the robustness of the results in the vector error correction (VEC) model. The outcomes of this research suggest that both industry-specific and macroeconomic factors influence NPLs significantly. Among the industry-specific determinants, bank loan growth, net operating profit, and deposit rates negatively impact NPLs with statistical significance while bank liquidity and lending rates have a significant positive affiliation with NPLs. Gross domestic product (GDP) growth and unemployment, among the macroeconomic variables, have a negative connection with NPLs. Whereas, domestic credit and exchange rates have a significant positive association with NPLs. The contribution of this research is that the outcomes found by means of econometric models can be used for predicting and measuring NPLs in upcoming years, not only for Bangladesh but also for developing and emerging economies. Individual banks, as well as the banking sector, by and large, can get a guideline from this research.

Keywords: loan expansion; GDP; NPL; ARDL; VECM; Johansen test of co-integration; unit root (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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