Projection of Wind Energy Potential over Northern China Using a Regional Climate Model

Zhuo Chen, Wei Li, Junhong Guo, Zhe Bao, Zhangrong Pan and Baodeng Hou
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Zhuo Chen: MOE Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Systems Optimization, Ministry of Education, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China
Wei Li: MOE Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Systems Optimization, Ministry of Education, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China
Junhong Guo: MOE Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Systems Optimization, Ministry of Education, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China
Zhe Bao: MOE Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Systems Optimization, Ministry of Education, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China
Zhangrong Pan: MOE Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Systems Optimization, Ministry of Education, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China
Baodeng Hou: China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, Beijing 100038, China

Sustainability, 2020, vol. 12, issue 10, 1-16

Abstract: With the purpose of achieving carbon emission reduction targets, the wind power industry has developed rapidly in recent years. Wind power is greatly affected by climate change, and the increase or decrease of wind speed directly affects wind energy production. Based on the numerical simulation results from a high-resolution (~ 25 km) regional climate model PRECIS, we analyze the changes of future wind speed and wind power potential in the "Three North" (TN) region in China. Firstly, we verify whether the PRECIS can capture the current spatiotemporal patterns in simulating the wind speed compared with observation (CN05.1). The results show PRECIS has a good ability in reproducing the spatiotemporal patterns of wind speed in the eastern part of the TN region, but still has great uncertainty in the northwest. In the future, the projected wind power density in the TN region will increase by about 0.7% in the middle of the 21 st century, but will drop significantly in the end of the century (about −3.32%). Furthermore, Wind power density will increase significantly in winter. However, the wind speed in spring and summer will generally decrease. It is predicted that most of the Northwest (NW) and North (N) will have strong inter-annual variability in the middle of this century, and will be more stable at the end of this century. It should be noted that the potential of wind energy in Northeast (NE) will grow steadily in this century, which will have certain guiding significance for future wind power planning in this region.

Keywords: wind energy potential; “Three North” region; PRECIS; climate change (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:12:y:2020:i:10:p:3979-:d:357350

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