Why Italy First? Health, Geographical and Planning Aspects of the COVID-19 Outbreak

Beniamino Murgante, Giuseppe Borruso, Ginevra Balletto, Paolo Castiglia and Marco Dettori
Additional contact information
Beniamino Murgante: School of Engineering, University of Basilicata, Viale dell’Ateneo Lucano, 10, 85100 Potenza, Italy
Giuseppe Borruso: Department of Economics, Business, Mathematics and Statistics “Bruno de Finetti”, University of Trieste, Via Tigor 22, 34124 Trieste, Italy
Ginevra Balletto: Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering and Architecture, University of Cagliari, Via Marengo 2, 09123 Cagliari, Italy
Paolo Castiglia: Department of Medical, Surgical and Experimental Sciences, University of Sassari, Viale San Pietro, 07100 Sassari, Italy
Marco Dettori: Department of Medical, Surgical and Experimental Sciences, University of Sassari, Viale San Pietro, 07100 Sassari, Italy

Sustainability, 2020, vol. 12, issue 12, 1-44

Abstract: COVID-19 hit Italy in February 2020 after its outbreak in China at the beginning of January. Why was Italy first among the Western countries? What are the conditions that made Italy more vulnerable and the first target of this disease? What characteristics and diffusion patterns could be highlighted and hypothesized from its outbreak to the end of March 2020, after containment measures, including a national lockdown, were introduced? In this paper, we try to provide some answers to these questions, analyzing the issue from medical, geographical and planning points of view. With reference to the Italian case, we observed the phenomenon in terms of the spatial diffusion process and by observing the relation between the epidemic and various environmental elements. In particular, we started from a hypothesis of the comparable economic, geographical, climatic and environmental conditions of the areas of Wuhan (in the Hubei Province in China, where the epidemic broke out) and the Po Valley area (in Italy) where most cases and deaths were registered. Via an ecological approach, we compared the spatial distribution and pattern of COVID-19-related mortality in Italy with several geographical, environmental and socio-economic variables at a Provincial level, analyzing them by means of spatial analytical techniques such as LISA (Local Indicators of Spatial Association). Possible evidence arose relating to COVID-19 cases and Nitrogen-related pollutants and land take, particularly in the Po Valley area.

Keywords: COVID-19; Italy; Po-Valley; NO x; pollution; particles; land take; spatial diffusion processes; LISA (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (19)

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