Generation and Prediction of Construction and Demolition Waste Using Exponential Smoothing Method: A Case Study of Shandong Province, China

Liang Qiao, Doudou Liu, Xueliang Yuan, Qingsong Wang and Qiao Ma
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Liang Qiao: National Engineering Laboratory for Reducing Emissions from Coal Combustion, Engineering Research Center of Environmental Thermal Technology of Ministry of Education, Shandong Key Laboratory of Energy Carbon Reduction and Resource Utilization, Research Center for Sustainable Development, School of Energy and Power Engineering, Shandong University, Jinan 250061, China
Doudou Liu: School of Management Science and Engineering, Shandong University of Finance and Economics, Jinan 250014, China
Xueliang Yuan: National Engineering Laboratory for Reducing Emissions from Coal Combustion, Engineering Research Center of Environmental Thermal Technology of Ministry of Education, Shandong Key Laboratory of Energy Carbon Reduction and Resource Utilization, Research Center for Sustainable Development, School of Energy and Power Engineering, Shandong University, Jinan 250061, China
Qingsong Wang: National Engineering Laboratory for Reducing Emissions from Coal Combustion, Engineering Research Center of Environmental Thermal Technology of Ministry of Education, Shandong Key Laboratory of Energy Carbon Reduction and Resource Utilization, Research Center for Sustainable Development, School of Energy and Power Engineering, Shandong University, Jinan 250061, China
Qiao Ma: National Engineering Laboratory for Reducing Emissions from Coal Combustion, Engineering Research Center of Environmental Thermal Technology of Ministry of Education, Shandong Key Laboratory of Energy Carbon Reduction and Resource Utilization, Research Center for Sustainable Development, School of Energy and Power Engineering, Shandong University, Jinan 250061, China

Sustainability, 2020, vol. 12, issue 12, 1-12

Abstract: The output of construction and demolition (C&D) waste in China has been rapidly increasing in the past decades. The direct landfill of such construction and demolition waste without any treatment accounts for about 98%. Therefore, recycling and utilizing this waste is necessary. The prediction of the output of such waste is the basis for waste disposal and resource utilization. This study takes Shandong Province as a case, the current output of C&D waste is analyzed by building area estimation method, and the output of C&D waste in the next few years is also predicted by Mann–Kendall trend test and quadratic exponential smoothing prediction method. Results indicate that the annual productions of C&D waste in Shandong Province demonstrates a significant growth trend with average annual growth of 11.38%. The growth rates of each city differ a lot. The better the city’s economic development, the higher the level of urbanization, the more C&D waste generated. The prediction results suggest that the output of C&D waste in Shandong Province will grow at an average rate of 3.07% in the next few years. By 2025, the amount of C&D waste will reach 141 million tons. These findings can provide basic data support and reference for the management and utilization of C&D waste.

Keywords: construction and demolition waste; trend test; exponential smoothing method; prediction (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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