Vehicular PM Emissions and Urban Public Health Sustainability: A Probabilistic Analysis for Dhaka City

Asif Iqbal, Shirina Afroze and Md. Mizanur Rahman
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Asif Iqbal: UniSA STEM, University of South Australia, SA 5095 Adelaide, Australia
Shirina Afroze: UniSA STEM, University of South Australia, SA 5095 Adelaide, Australia
Md. Mizanur Rahman: UniSA STEM, University of South Australia, SA 5095 Adelaide, Australia

Sustainability, 2020, vol. 12, issue 15, 1-18

Abstract: Particulate Matter (PM) pollution is generally considered as a prime indicator of urban air quality and is linked to human health hazards. As vehicles are a vital component of an urban setting, the risks of particulate pollution need to be assessed. An emission modelling is essential for that, and thus stochastic modelling approach involving Monte Carlo simulation technique was applied, aiming to reduce the uncertainty in emission modelling. The risks scenarios for the emissions were generated for 2019 (present state) and 2024 (future), integrating the probability of emissions and the associated AQI (Air Quality Index). Despite the vehicles being a minor source of PM in Dhaka (compared to the contribution from other sources), about one-third of the city is found under high risk due to the exhaust particulate pollution; having the potentiality to cover more than 60% of the city in the coming years, affecting the urban public health sustainability. However, the extent of implementation of planning and management strategies can revert the scenarios for the city, which can plausibly reduce the risk from 80% to 50%, or even to a no-risk state.

Keywords: vehicular particulate emissions; probabilistic analysis; urban public health (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

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