Modeling Collision Probability on Freeway: Accounting for Different Types and Severities in Various LOS

Bo Yang, Yao Wu, Weihua Zhang and Jie Bao
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Bo Yang: Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Urban ITS, Jiangsu Province Collaborative Innovation Center of Modern Urban Traffic Technologies, Southeast University, Nanjing 210096, China
Yao Wu: Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Urban ITS, Jiangsu Province Collaborative Innovation Center of Modern Urban Traffic Technologies, Southeast University, Nanjing 210096, China
Weihua Zhang: School of Automobile and Traffic Engineering, Hefei University of Technology, Hefei 230009, China
Jie Bao: Civil Aviation College, Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Nanjing 211106, China

Sustainability, 2020, vol. 12, issue 18, 1-13

Abstract: In this study, collision-related data were collected on the I-880 freeway of California in the United States from 2006 to 2011. Our objective was to study the collision probability of different collision types and severities in different traffic states. The traffic states were divided by the traditional level of service (LOS) method. Various Bayesian conditional logit models have been established to analyze the relationship between the collision probability of different collision patterns and LOSs. The results showed that LOS A had the best safety performance associated with all of the collision types and severities, LOS C had the worst safety performance associated with hit object collisions, LOS D had the worst safety performance associated with sideswipe collisions and rear end collisions, and LOS F had the worst safety performance associated with injury collisions. The five-stage Bayesian random parameter sequential logit model was established to quantify the effects of different variables on the collision probability of various collision types and severities. In addition to LOS, the visibility, road surface, weather, ramp, and number of lanes had significant effects on different collision types and severities.

Keywords: freeway; safety; LOS; collision types and severities; conditional logit models; Bayesian approach; sequential logit model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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