Modelling the Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Rice Cultivation in Mekong Delta, Vietnam

An T. N. Dang, Lalit Kumar and Michael Reid
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An T. N. Dang: School of Environmental and Rural Science, University of New England, Armidale, NSW 2351, Australia
Lalit Kumar: School of Environmental and Rural Science, University of New England, Armidale, NSW 2351, Australia
Michael Reid: School of Humanities, Arts, and Social Sciences, University of New England, Armidale, NSW 2351, Australia

Sustainability, 2020, vol. 12, issue 22, 1-21

Abstract: Rice paddy fields, considered as a human-made wetland ecosystems, play important roles in food production and ecosystem conservation. Nowadays, rice cultivation in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam, is under severe threat from climate changes, yet there is a shortage of documented information and research on rice production under future climate. Hence, the present study investigates the impacts of climate change on rice cultivation in the MD using an ensemble-modelling approach, implemented by biomod2 platform in R software. Rice cultivation occurrence points, eco-physiological and bioclimatic data were utilised to model habitat suitability for rice cultivation under current and future climate, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios of the year 2050. The ensemble model obtained acceptable accuracy with scores of 0.880, 0.993 and 0.960 for KAPPA, ROC/AUC and TSS, respectively. Simulation results show that the mean loss of suitable land and mean gain of unsuitable land were 31.4% and 64.6%, respectively, for the year 2050 compared to the present. Salinity intrusion, increases in precipitation during rainy season and decreases in precipitation during dry season were key factors driving the loss of suitable habitat. The findings of this study critically support policy makers and planners in developing appropriate strategies for adaptation and mitigation in response to climate change for sustainable rice cultivation.

Keywords: climate change; sustainability; sea level rise; Mekong Delta; rice habitat suitability; ensemble modelling (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (8)

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