Trade-Off Relationship of Arable and Ecological Land in Urban Growth When Altering Urban Form: A Case Study of Shenzhen, China

Kaixuan Dai, Shi Shen, Changxiu Cheng, Sijing Ye and Peichao Gao
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Kaixuan Dai: State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
Shi Shen: State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
Changxiu Cheng: State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
Sijing Ye: State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
Peichao Gao: Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China

Sustainability, 2020, vol. 12, issue 23, 1-20

Abstract: Over the last few decades, rapid urban expansion has spread over a great deal of arable and ecological land, leading to severe social and environmental issues. Although different urban growth scenarios cause varying types of urban forms to emerge, there is currently a lack of empirical studies and other research on these different forms. Therefore, it is important for decision-makers to have an improved understanding of the relationships between arable land and ecological land under different urban form conditions in order to implement sustainable urban development policies. This study utilized a patch-based, multilevel stochastic urban growth model to simulate Shenzhen’s urban growth until 2035. To determine the impacts of urban forms and population density on land use, we established five scenarios to simulate urban expansion and land-use changes at the sub-regional scale. The results revealed the trade-off relationships that emerge when altering the urban forms or population density, which shows that no single policy can conserve arable land and ecological land simultaneously. The results also revealed that sub-regions have distinct responses to alternative urban form scenarios compared with an entire region. Decision-makers and planners should consider the urban form in order to optimize development projects that fit local conditions and achieve more sustainable development.

Keywords: FUTURES; urban growth simulation; scenarios analysis; Shenzhen (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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