Quantitative Attribution of Runoff Attenuation to Climate Change and Human Activity in Typical Mountainous Areas: An Enlightenment to Water Resource Sustainable Utilization and Management in North China

Yufei Jiao, Jia Liu, Chuanzhe Li, Wei Wang, Fuliang Yu and Yizhi Wang
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Yufei Jiao: State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China
Jia Liu: State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China
Chuanzhe Li: State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China
Wei Wang: State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China
Fuliang Yu: State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China
Yizhi Wang: State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China

Sustainability, 2020, vol. 12, issue 24, 1-19

Abstract: The influence of climate change and human activities on hydrological elements has increased along with increasing dependence on water resources. Therefore, quantitative attribution of hydrological elements has received wide attention. In this study, the double mass curve (DMC) is used to assess the abrupt change point of the hydrological data series, based on which the periods with/without large-scale human activities causing runoff attenuation are separated. The land use transition matrix is then employed to analyze the land use types at different historical stages, and the sensitivities of the runoff attenuation to different land use/cover change (LUCC) categories are quantified. A soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) model that considers the underlying surface is constructed with six designed scenarios of different climate and LUCC conditions. Taking three typical mountainous basins in North China as the study area, the quantitative contributions of climate change and human activities to the water resources are identified. The results of the study have brought enlightenment to the water resource sustainable utilization and management in North China, and the methodologies can be transferred to runoff attribution analysis in water shortage areas.

Keywords: runoff attenuation; quantitative attribution analysis; climate change; LUCC; water resources management; North China (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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