Streamflow Reconstruction and Variation Characteristic Analysis of the Ganjiang River in China for the Past 515 Years

Zhiwei Wan, Xi Chen, Min Ju, Chaohao Ling, Guangxu Liu, Siping Lin, Huihua Liu, Yulian Jia, Meixin Jiang and Fuqiang Liao
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Zhiwei Wan: Key Laboratory of Poyang Lake Wetland and Watershed Research Ministry of Education, School of Geography and Environment, Jiangxi Normal University, Nanchang 330022, China
Xi Chen: Key Laboratory of Poyang Lake Wetland and Watershed Research Ministry of Education, School of Geography and Environment, Jiangxi Normal University, Nanchang 330022, China
Min Ju: Key Laboratory of Poyang Lake Wetland and Watershed Research Ministry of Education, School of Geography and Environment, Jiangxi Normal University, Nanchang 330022, China
Chaohao Ling: State Key Laboratory of Lake Science and Environment, Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing 210008, China
Guangxu Liu: School of Geography and Environmental Engineering, Gannan Normal University, Ganzhou 341000, China
Siping Lin: Key Laboratory of Poyang Lake Wetland and Watershed Research Ministry of Education, School of Geography and Environment, Jiangxi Normal University, Nanchang 330022, China
Huihua Liu: Key Laboratory of Poyang Lake Wetland and Watershed Research Ministry of Education, School of Geography and Environment, Jiangxi Normal University, Nanchang 330022, China
Yulian Jia: Key Laboratory of Poyang Lake Wetland and Watershed Research Ministry of Education, School of Geography and Environment, Jiangxi Normal University, Nanchang 330022, China
Meixin Jiang: Key Laboratory of Poyang Lake Wetland and Watershed Research Ministry of Education, School of Geography and Environment, Jiangxi Normal University, Nanchang 330022, China
Fuqiang Liao: Key Laboratory of Poyang Lake Wetland and Watershed Research Ministry of Education, School of Geography and Environment, Jiangxi Normal University, Nanchang 330022, China

Sustainability, 2020, vol. 12, issue 3, 1-20

Abstract: River flow reconstruction under the background of long-term climate change is of great significance for understanding the regional response to future drought and flood disasters, and the sustainable development of water resources. Investigating the basic characteristics and changing trends of the streamflow of the Ganjiang River is scientifically important to mitigate drought and flood disasters in the future. This study reconstructed drought and flood grade series of five regional stations of the Ganjiang River based on spatially explicit and well-dated local chronicle materials and used a linear regression model of modern drought/flood grades and precipitation to reconstruct historical precipitation for the past 515 years. The relationships between the modern precipitation of five regional stations and streamflow of Waizhou Station, which is the last hydrological station of the Ganjiang River were analyzed through principal component regression. The adjusted R 2 is 0.909, with a low relative bias of −1.82%. The variation of streamflow from AD 1500 to AD 2014 was reconstructed using the proposed model. Result shows that high flows occur in nine periods and low flows occur in 11 periods. Extremely low stream flow in 515 years appears during the middle and late 17th century. Cumulative anomaly and Mann-Kendall mutation test results reveal that a transition point from predominantly low to high flows occur in AD 1720. Redfit power spectrum analysis result shows that the variation periods of streamflow are 2–5, 7–8 years, and approximately 32 years, where the most significant period is 2–3 years. Continuous wavelet transform indicates that the corresponding relation occurs between streamflow and El Niño/Southern Oscillation for eight years. Streamflow is affected by temperature and East Asian monsoon that is controlled by solar activities. The flood may be related to strong solar activity, monsoon failure, and vice versa. Hydrological frequency curve analysis shows that the streamflow of the Ganjiang River once in a hundred years may reach up to 1031 × 10 8 m 3 for flood or 485 × 10 8 m 3 for drought and the standard of once in a millennium runoff may reach up to 1188 × 10 8 m 3 for flood or 450 × 10 8 m 3 for drought. These results may provide basic hydrological data for the sustainable development of society and serve as a reference for mitigating the impact of drought and flood disasters in the future.

Keywords: streamflow variation; historical drought and flood data; Ganjiang River; reconstruction (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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