Supporting Electrification Policy in Fragile States: A Conflict-Adjusted Geospatial Least Cost Approach for Afghanistan

Alexandros Korkovelos, Dimitrios Mentis, Morgan Bazilian, Mark Howells, Anwar Saraj, Sulaiman Fayez Hotaki and Fanny Missfeldt-Ringius
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Alexandros Korkovelos: Division of Energy Systems, KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Brinellvägen 68, 100 44 Stockholm, Sweden
Dimitrios Mentis: Division of Energy Systems, KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Brinellvägen 68, 100 44 Stockholm, Sweden
Morgan Bazilian: Division of Energy Systems, KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Brinellvägen 68, 100 44 Stockholm, Sweden
Mark Howells: Department of Geography, Climate Compatible Growth (CCG) Program, Loughborough University, Epinal Way, Loughborough LE11 3TU, Leicestershire, UK
Anwar Saraj: Geomatics and Engineering Department, Kabul Polytechnic University, Bagh-e-Bala Road, 5th District, Kabul 1010, Afghanistan
Sulaiman Fayez Hotaki: Geomatics and Engineering Department, Kabul Polytechnic University, Bagh-e-Bala Road, 5th District, Kabul 1010, Afghanistan
Fanny Missfeldt-Ringius: The World Bank Group, Washington, DC 40433, USA

Sustainability, 2020, vol. 12, issue 3, 1-34

Abstract: Roughly two billion people live in areas that regularly suffer from conflict, violence, and instability. Infrastructure development in those areas is very difficult to implement and fund. As an example, electrification systems face major challenges such as ensuring the security of the workforce or reliability of power supply. This paper presents electrification results from an explorative methodology, where the costs and risks of conflict are explicitly considered in a geo-spatial, least cost electrification model. Discount factor and risk premium adjustments are introduced per technology and location in order to examine changes in electrification outlooks in Afghanistan. Findings indicate that the cost optimal electrification mix is very sensitive to the local context; yet, certain patterns emerge. Urban populations create a strong consumer base for grid electricity, in some cases even under higher risk. For peri-urban and rural areas, electrification options are more sensitive to conflict-induced risk variation. In this paper, we identify these inflection points, quantify key decision parameters, and present policy recommendations for universal electrification of Afghanistan by 2030.

Keywords: Afghanistan; conflict; geospatial electrification; OnSSET; Geographic Information Systems (GIS) (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (6)

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