An Ensemble Framework to Investigate Wind Energy Sustainability Considering Climate Change Impacts

Shengjin Wang, Hongru Yang, Quoc Bao Pham, Dao Nguyen Khoi and Pham Thi Thao Nhi
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Shengjin Wang: Northeast Asia Research Institute, Jilin University, Changchun 130012, China
Hongru Yang: Northeast Asia Research Institute, Jilin University, Changchun 130012, China
Quoc Bao Pham: Department of Hydraulic and Ocean Engineering, National Cheng-Kung University, Tainan 701, Taiwan
Dao Nguyen Khoi: Faculty of Environment, University of Science, Vietnam National University Ho Chi Minh City, Ho Chi Minh City 700000, Vietnam
Pham Thi Thao Nhi: Institute of Research and Development, Duy Tan University, Danang 550000, Vietnam

Sustainability, 2020, vol. 12, issue 3, 1-17

Abstract: Wind power is a key element for future renewable energy resources and plays a vital role in sustainable development. Global warming and future climate conditions are going to impact many atmospheric, oceanic, and earth systems. In this study, impacts of climate change on wind power resources under future climatic conditions are evaluated for the Persian Gulf to explore the sustainability of this kind of energy for present and future developments. To that end, three regional climate models obtained from coordinated regional downscaling experiment (CRODEX), including daily simulations of near-surface wind speeds for a 20-year period in the present and future, were considered. Prior to computing the wind power at turbine hub-height, historical simulations of CORDEX were evaluated versus ERA-Interim wind outputs to determine the accuracy of the regional climate models. An attempt was made to build an ensemble model from available models by assigning weights to the models based on their merits. Subsequently, the wind power at the turbine hub-height was computed for historical and future periods to detect the impacts of climate change. Some points with a relatively high energy potential were selected as energy hotspots for further investigations. The results revealed that the mean annual wind power over the study area changed remarkably, which is of great importance for sustainable developments. Moreover, the results of the directional investigations showed roughly the same directional distribution for the future period as the past.

Keywords: wind power; sustainability; ensemble; climate change; energy hotspots (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (5)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:12:y:2020:i:3:p:876-:d:312709

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