National-Scale Built-Environment Exposure to 100-Year Extreme Sea Levels and Sea-Level Rise

Ryan Paulik, Scott A. Stephens, Robert G. Bell, Sanjay Wadhwa and Ben Popovich
Additional contact information
Ryan Paulik: National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA), 301 Evans Bay, Greta Point, Wellington 6021, New Zealand
Scott A. Stephens: National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA), Gate 10, Silverdale Road, Hillcrest, Hamilton 3216, New Zealand
Robert G. Bell: National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA), Gate 10, Silverdale Road, Hillcrest, Hamilton 3216, New Zealand
Sanjay Wadhwa: National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA), Gate 10, Silverdale Road, Hillcrest, Hamilton 3216, New Zealand
Ben Popovich: National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA), 301 Evans Bay, Greta Point, Wellington 6021, New Zealand

Sustainability, 2020, vol. 12, issue 4, 1-16

Abstract: Coastal flooding from extreme sea levels will increase in frequency and magnitude as global climate change forces sea-level rise (SLR). Extreme sea-level events, rare in the recent past (i.e., once per century), are projected to occur at least once per year by 2050 along many of the world’s coastlines. Information showing where and how built-environment exposure increases with SLR, enables timely adaptation before damaging thresholds are reached. This study presents a first national-scale assessment of New Zealand’s built-environment exposure to future coastal flooding. We use an analytical risk model framework, “RiskScape”, to enumerate land, buildings and infrastructure exposed to a present and future 100-year extreme sea-level flood event (ESL 100 ). We used high-resolution topographic data to assess incremental exposure to 0.1 m SLR increases. This approach detects variable rates in the potential magnitude and timing of future flood exposure in response to SLR over decadal scales. National built-land and asset exposure to ESL 100 flooding doubles with less than 1 m SLR, indicating low-lying areas are likely to experience rapid exposure increases from modest increases in SLR expected within the next few decades. This highlights an urgent need for national and regional actions to anticipate and adaptively plan to reduce future socio-economic impacts arising from flood exposure to extreme sea-levels and SLR.

Keywords: extreme sea-levels; sea-level rise; flooding; exposure; built-environment; buildings; infrastructure; RiskScape (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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