Probabilistic Generation Model of Solar Irradiance for Grid Connected Photovoltaic Systems Using Weibull Distribution

Muhammad Umar Afzaal, Intisar Ali Sajjad, Ahmed Bilal Awan, Kashif Nisar Paracha, Muhammad Faisal Nadeem Khan, Abdul Rauf Bhatti, Muhammad Zubair, Waqas ur Rehman, Salman Amin, Shaikh Saaqib Haroon, Rehan Liaqat, Walid Hdidi and Iskander Tlili
Additional contact information
Muhammad Umar Afzaal: O&M Division, KOENERGY Korea for Gulpur Hydro Power Project, Islamabad 44000, Pakistan
Intisar Ali Sajjad: Department of Electrical Engineering, University of Engineering and Technology Taxila, Taxila 47050, Pakistan
Ahmed Bilal Awan: Department of Electrical Engineering, College of Engineering, Majmaah University, Almajmaah 15341, Saudi Arabia
Kashif Nisar Paracha: Department of Electrical Engineering, Government College University Faisalabad, Faisalabad 38000, Pakistan
Muhammad Faisal Nadeem Khan: Department of Electrical Engineering, University of Engineering and Technology Taxila, Taxila 47050, Pakistan
Abdul Rauf Bhatti: Department of Electrical Engineering, Government College University Faisalabad, Faisalabad 38000, Pakistan
Muhammad Zubair: Department of Electrical Engineering, College of Engineering, Majmaah University, Almajmaah 15341, Saudi Arabia
Waqas ur Rehman: Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Missouri University of Science and Technology, Rolla, MO 65409, USA
Salman Amin: Department of Electrical Engineering, University of Engineering and Technology Taxila, Taxila 47050, Pakistan
Shaikh Saaqib Haroon: Department of Electrical Engineering, University of Engineering and Technology Taxila, Taxila 47050, Pakistan
Rehan Liaqat: Department of Electrical Engineering, University of Engineering and Technology Taxila, Taxila 47050, Pakistan
Walid Hdidi: Department of mathematics, College of Arts and Sciences of Tabrjal, Jouf University, Sakaka 72341, Saudi Arabia
Iskander Tlili: Department for Management of Science and Technology Development, Ton Duc Thang University, Ho Chi Minh City 758307, Vietnam

Sustainability, 2020, vol. 12, issue 6, 1-17

Abstract: Around the world, countries are integrating photovoltaic generating systems to the grid to support climate change initiatives. However, solar power generation is highly uncertain due to variations in solar irradiance level during different hours of the day. Inaccurate modelling of this variability can lead to non-optimal dispatch of system resources. Therefore, accurate characterization of solar irradiance patterns is essential for effective management of renewable energy resources in an electrical power grid. In this paper, the Weibull distribution based probabilistic model is presented for characterization of solar irradiance patterns. Firstly, Weibull distribution is utilized to model inter-temporal variations associated with reference solar irradiance data through moving window averaging technique, and then the proposed model is used for irradiance pattern generation. To achieve continuity of discrete Weibull distribution parameters calculated at different steps of moving window, Generalized Regression Neural Network (GRNN) is employed. Goodness of Fit (GOF) techniques are used to calculate the error between mean and standard deviation of generated and reference patterns. The comparison of GOF results with the literature shows that the proposed model has improved performance. The presented model can be used for power system planning studies where the uncertainty of different resources such as generation, load, network, etc., needs to be considered for their better management.

Keywords: solar power generation; Weibull distribution; irradiance patterns (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (9)

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