Rapidity of Change in Population Age Structures: A Local Approach Based on Multiway Factor Analysis

Rares Halbac-Cotoara-Zamfir, Sirio Cividino, Gianluca Egidi, Rosanna Salvia and Luca Salvati
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Rares Halbac-Cotoara-Zamfir: Department of Overland Communication Ways, Foundation and Cadastral Survey, Politehnica University of Timisoara, 1A I, 300224 Timisoara, Romania
Sirio Cividino: Department of Agriculture, University of Udine, I-33100 Udine, Italy
Gianluca Egidi: Department of Agricultural and Forestry Sciences (DAFNE), University of Tuscia, I-01100 Viterbo, Italy
Rosanna Salvia: Department of Mathematics, Computer Science and Economics, University of Basilicata, I-85100 Potenza, Italy
Luca Salvati: Department of Economics and Law, University of Macerata, I-62100 Macerata, Italy

Sustainability, 2020, vol. 12, issue 7, 1-13

Abstract: In the light of complex adaptive system thinking, population age structures in Europe have increasingly reflected the interplay between ‘fast’ and ‘slow’ socioeconomic dynamics driven by natural population growth and migration. Assuming the importance of demographic dynamics shaping regional growth in recent times, a diachronic analysis of local-scale population age structures was developed for 156 districts of Greece between 1971 and 2011. By using appropriate indicators, the analysis was aimed at demonstrating how ‘fast’ and ‘slow’ transitions contribute to socioeconomic change in both urban and rural areas. A comprehensive analysis of change in population age structures between 1971 and 2011 allows identification of latent spatial structures as a result of population re-distribution from urban cores to broader rural regions. Following residential mobility, the empirical results of this study indicate (i) a late phase of urbanization (1971–1981) with population densification and settlement compactness, (i) a rapid suburbanization (1981–1991) consolidating distinctive demographic structures in urban and rural areas, (ii) a mild counter-urbanization (1991–2001) with moderate aging of suburban populations and (iii) a latent re-urbanization (2001–2011) reducing the suburban-urban divide in population age structures. Residential mobility contributed to a more balanced age structure during suburbanization and an increased demographic divide in the subsequent urban waves. A refined analysis of long-term population dynamics in metropolitan regions reflects spatial outcomes and latent aspects of demographic transitions shedding light on the debate over the future development of urban and rural societies in advanced economies.

Keywords: population dynamics; age structure; spatial analysis; rapidity of change; Greece (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:12:y:2020:i:7:p:2828-:d:340587

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