Analysis and Projection of Land-Use/Land-Cover Dynamics through Scenario-Based Simulations Using the CA-Markov Model: A Case Study in Guanting Reservoir Basin, China

Gebdang B. Ruben, Ke Zhang, Zengchuan Dong and Jun Xia
Additional contact information
Gebdang B. Ruben: State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China
Ke Zhang: State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China
Zengchuan Dong: College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China
Jun Xia: College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China

Sustainability, 2020, vol. 12, issue 9, 1-20

Abstract: Understanding the rate and process of land-use/land-cover (LULC) change in a watershed is essential for managing natural resources and achieving sustainable development. Therefore, this study aims to analyze historical LULC change from 1980 to 2010 and project future changes in 2030, 2060, and 2090 in the Guanting Reservoir Basin (GRB), China, a critical water-supplying watershed for China’s capital Beijing, through scenario-based simulations. Two LULC scenarios, ‘business-as-usual’ and ‘governance’ (Gov), were projected using the Cellular Automata-Markov (CA–Markov) model. Historical LULC trend analysis shows that built-up land increased from 2.6% in 1980 to 5.26% in 2010, while cropland, grassland, and water body decreased. LULC conversion analysis indicates that, in general, grassland, cropland, and woodland were converted to built-up area from 1980 to 2010. The BAU scenario projects a dramatic increase in built-up area, rising from 2296.98 km 2 (5.26%) in 2010 to 11,757.35 km 2 (26.93%) in 2090 at the expense of cropland and grassland areas. Conversely, the Gov scenario predicts an increase in water body, woodland, and grassland, encouraging sustainable development. Overall, these results provide useful inputs to the LULC planners and water resources managers to elaborate on eco-friendly policies and regulations for GRB.

Keywords: land-use/land-cover change; Guanting Reservoir Basin; CA–Markov; prediction (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/12/9/3747/pdf (application/pdf)
https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/12/9/3747/ (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:12:y:2020:i:9:p:3747-:d:354252

Access Statistics for this article

Sustainability is currently edited by Ms. Alexandra Wu

More articles in Sustainability from MDPI
Bibliographic data for series maintained by MDPI Indexing Manager ().