Risk Reasoning from Factor Correlation of Maritime Traffic under Arctic Sea Ice Status Association with a Bayesian Belief Network

Zhuang Li, Shenping Hu, Guoping Gao, Yongtao Xi, Shanshan Fu and Chenyang Yao
Additional contact information
Zhuang Li: College of Ocean Science and Engineering, Shanghai Maritime University, Shanghai 201306, China
Shenping Hu: Merchant Marine College, Shanghai Maritime University, Shanghai 201306, China
Guoping Gao: College of Marine Ecology and Environment, Shanghai Ocean University, Shanghai 201306, China
Yongtao Xi: Merchant Marine College, Shanghai Maritime University, Shanghai 201306, China
Shanshan Fu: College of Transportation and Communication, Shanghai Maritime University, Shanghai 201306, China
Chenyang Yao: Merchant Marine College, Shanghai Maritime University, Shanghai 201306, China

Sustainability, 2020, vol. 13, issue 1, 1-17

Abstract: Sustainable growth should not only be beneficial to the shipping industry in the future, but is also an urgent need to respond to resource and environmental crises and strengthen shipping governance. Maritime traffic in Arctic waters is prone to encounter dangerous ice conditions, and it is essential to study the mechanism of ice collision risk formation in relation to ice conditions. Taking the ship-ice collision risk in Arctic waters as the research object, we propose a dynamic assessment model of ship-ice collision risk under sea ice status dynamic association (SDA) effect. By constructing the standard paradigm of risk factor dynamic association (DA) effect, taking SDA as the key association factor. Combing with other risk factors that affect ship-ice collision accidents, the coupling relationship between risk factors were analyzed. Then, using the Bayesian network method to build a ship-ice collision accident dynamic risk assessment model and combing with the ice monitoring data in summer Arctic waters, we screen five ships’ position information on the trans-Arctic route in August. The risk behavior of ship-ice collision accidents on the selected route under SDA is analyzed by model simulation. The research reveal that the degree of SDA is a key related factor for the serious ice condition and the possibility of human error during ship’s navigation, which significantly affects the ship-ice collision risk. The traffic in Arctic waters requires extra vigilance of the SDA effect from no ice threat to ice threat, and continuous ice threat. According to the ship-ice collision risk analysis under the SDA effect and without SDA effect, the difference in risk reasoning results on the five stations of the selected route are 32.69%, −32.33%, −27.64%, −10.26%, and −30.13% respectively. The DA effect can optimize ship-ice collision risk inference problem in Arctic waters.

Keywords: maritime traffic risk; ship-ice collision; Bayesian network; Dempster-Shafer theory; Arctic waters; dynamic association (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/13/1/147/pdf (application/pdf)
https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/13/1/147/ (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:13:y:2020:i:1:p:147-:d:468458

Access Statistics for this article

Sustainability is currently edited by Ms. Alexandra Wu

More articles in Sustainability from MDPI
Bibliographic data for series maintained by MDPI Indexing Manager ().