Travel Demand Prediction during COVID-19 Pandemic: Educational and Working Trips at the University of Padova

Riccardo Ceccato, Riccardo Rossi and Massimiliano Gastaldi
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Riccardo Ceccato: Department of Civil, Architectural and Environmental Engineering, University of Padova, Via Marzolo, 9, 35131 Padova, Italy
Riccardo Rossi: Department of Civil, Architectural and Environmental Engineering, University of Padova, Via Marzolo, 9, 35131 Padova, Italy
Massimiliano Gastaldi: Department of Civil, Architectural and Environmental Engineering, University of Padova, Via Marzolo, 9, 35131 Padova, Italy

Sustainability, 2021, vol. 13, issue 12, 1-20

Abstract: The diffusion of the COVID-19 pandemic has induced fundamental changes in travel habits. Although many previous authors have analysed factors affecting observed variations in travel demand, only a few works have focused on predictions of future new normal conditions when people will be allowed to decide whether to travel or not, although risk mitigation measures will still be enforced on vehicles, and innovative mobility services will be implemented. In addition, few authors have considered future mandatory trips of students that constitute a great part of everyday travels and are fundamental for the development of society. In this paper, logistic regression models were calibrated by using data from a revealed and stated-preferences mobility survey administered to students and employees at the University of Padova (Italy), to predict variables impacting on their decisions to perform educational and working trips in the new normal phase. Results highlighted that these factors are different between students and employees; furthermore, available travel alternatives and specific risk mitigation measures on vehicles were found to be significant. Moreover, the promotion of the use of bikes, as well as bike sharing, car pooling and micro mobility among students can effectively foster sustainable mobility habits. On the other hand, countermeasures on studying/working places resulted in a slight effect on travel decisions.

Keywords: COVID-19; sustainable mobility; trip cancellation; travel demand; public transport; micro mobility (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (15)

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