Beyond the Transition: Long-Term Population Trends in a Disadvantaged Region of Southern Europe, 1861–2017

Rosanna Salvia, Luca Salvati and Giovanni Quaranta
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Rosanna Salvia: Mathematics, Computer Science and Economics Department, University of Basilicata, I-85100 Potenza, Italy
Luca Salvati: Department of Economics and Law, University of Macerata, I-62100 Macerata, Italy
Giovanni Quaranta: Mathematics, Computer Science and Economics Department, University of Basilicata, I-85100 Potenza, Italy

Sustainability, 2021, vol. 13, issue 12, 1-23

Abstract: The long-term impact of demographic transitions on the spatial distribution of human settlements was occasionally evaluated in Europe. Assuming the distinctive role of urban–rural divides, our study investigates local-scale population trends (1861–2017) in Southern Italy, a disadvantaged region of Mediterranean Europe, as a result of long-term socioeconomic transformations. A quantitative analysis of municipal-scale population data based on descriptive and exploratory multivariate statistics, mapping, inferential approaches, and regression models identified four time intervals with distinctive demographic dynamics: (i) a spatially homogeneous population growth between 1861 and 1911, (ii) a moderate population increase rebalancing a traditional divide in coastal and internal areas (1911–1951), (iii) accelerated population growth enlarging spatial divides in urban and rural districts (1951–1981), and (iv) population stability (or slight decline) leading to heterogeneous demographic patterns since the early 1980s. The first three stages reflect a prolonged transition from high fertility and mortality to high fertility and low mortality, with accelerated population growth typical of the latest stage of the first demographic transition. Outcomes of time interval (iv) reflect the early stages of the second demographic transition, with lowest-low fertility and rising life expectancy. While the first transition reflected spatially homogeneous population trends along a considerable time spam, the second transition has been associated with heterogeneous (leapfrog) demographic patterns as a result of socially mixed (and spatially) fragmented dynamics of growth and change.

Keywords: population growth; multivariate analysis; urban-rural divide; southern Italy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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