How Do International Conflicts Impact China’s Energy Security and Economic Growth? A Case Study of the US Economic Sanctions on Iran

Xiaoxiao Hu, Ling He and Qi Cui
Additional contact information
Xiaoxiao Hu: School of Economics and Resource Management, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
Ling He: School of Economics and Resource Management, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
Qi Cui: School of Economics and Resource Management, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China

Sustainability, 2021, vol. 13, issue 12, 1-21

Abstract: International conflicts cause global energy price fluctuations and supply disruptions, which can threaten energy security and economic growth in energy-importing countries, including China. However, the implications and impact mechanisms of international conflicts on the energy security and economy of oil-importing countries have been poorly explored. Using US economic sanctions on Iran as a case, a global energy-extended computable general equilibrium model, GTAP-E, is employed to assess the impacts of international conflicts on China’s energy production, trade and supply, sectoral outputs, and economic growth. The results indicate that the USA–Iran tension would threaten China’s energy security, mainly due to the instability of the energy supply and the consequent upsurge of energy prices. However, if increased oil exports from other Persian Gulf countries compensate for the global oil supply shortages, China’s energy supply would be generally assured. Moreover, because of the close energy cooperation links between Iran and China, the sanctions could decrease the Chinese outputs of non-energy sectors and economic growth. Nevertheless, compared with sole-sanction situations, the results from a possible USA–Iran tension escalation, going as far as Iran’s closure of the Hormuz Strait, could pose a more serious risk to China’s energy security and economic growth.

Keywords: international conflict; energy security; economic growth; China; GTAP-E model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/13/12/6903/pdf (application/pdf)
https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/13/12/6903/ (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:13:y:2021:i:12:p:6903-:d:577451

Access Statistics for this article

Sustainability is currently edited by Ms. Alexandra Wu

More articles in Sustainability from MDPI
Bibliographic data for series maintained by MDPI Indexing Manager ().