Environmental and Energy Implications of Meat Consumption Pathways in Sub-Saharan Africa

Giacomo Falchetta, Nicolò Golinucci and Matteo Vincenzo Rocco
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Giacomo Falchetta: Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM), Corso Magenta 63, 20123 Milan, Italy
Nicolò Golinucci: Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM), Corso Magenta 63, 20123 Milan, Italy
Matteo Vincenzo Rocco: Department of Energy-Politecnico di Milano, Via Lambruschini 4, 20156 Milan, Italy

Sustainability, 2021, vol. 13, issue 13, 1-22

Abstract: In sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), diets are largely based on cereal or root staple crops. Together with socio-cultural change, economic and demographic growth could boost the demand for meat, with significant environmental repercussions. We model meat consumption pathways to 2050 for SSA based on several scenarios calibrated on historical demand drivers. To assess the consequent environmental impact, we adopt an environmentally-extended input-output (EEIO) framework and apply it on the EXIOBASE 3.3 hybrid tables. We find that, depending on the interplay of resources efficiency and demand growth, by 2050 the growth in meat consumption in SSA could cause a growth in greenhouse gases emissions of 1.4 [0.9–1.9] Gt CO 2 e/yr (~175% of current regional agriculture-related emissions), which is an extension of cropping and grazing-related land of 15 [12.5–21] · 10 6 km 2 (one quarter of today’s global agricultural land), the consumption of an additional 36 [29–47] Gm 3 /yr of blue water (nearly doubling the current regional agricultural consumption), an eutrophication potential growth of 7.6 [4.9–9.5] t PO 4 e/yr, and the consumption of additional 0.9 [0.5–1.4] EJ/yr of fossil fuels and 49 [32–73] TWh/yr of electricity. These results suggest that—in the absence of significant improvements in the regional sectoral resource efficiency—meat demand growth in SSA is bound to become a major global sustainability challenge. In addition, we show that a partial substitution of the protein intake from the expected growth in meat consumption with plant-based alternatives carries additional significant potential for mitigating environmental impacts. The policies affecting both farming practices and dietary choices will thus have a significant impact on the SSA and global environmental flows.

Keywords: meat consumption; economic development; environmental impact assessment; environmentally extended input-output analysis; sub-Saharan Africa (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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