Historical Variation of IEA Energy and CO 2 Emission Projections: Implications for Future Energy Modeling

Luís M. Fazendeiro and Sofia G. Simões
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Luís M. Fazendeiro: CENSE—Center of Environmental and Sustainability Research, NOVA School of Science and Technology, Campus de Caparica, NOVA University Lisbon, 2829-516 Caparica, Portugal
Sofia G. Simões: LNEG—Laboratório Nacional de Energia e Geologia, I.P. Estrada da Portela, Bairro do Zambujal Ap 7586, 2720-999 Amadora, Portugal

Sustainability, 2021, vol. 13, issue 13, 1-27

Abstract: The World Energy Outlook reports produced by the International Energy Agency have long been considered the “gold standard” in terms of energy modeling and projecting future trends. It is thus extremely important to assess how well its projections are aligned with sustainable development goals as well as closely tracking observed, historical values. In this work we analyzed thirteen sets of World Energy Outlook projections from the last 25 years. Different scenarios were considered for the following regions and countries: world, OECD, OECD Europe, OECD North America, China, India, Russia, and Africa. The maximum variation between the projections for 2030 CO 2 emissions from the energy sector, made between 2006 and 2018 for OECD, Europe and North America were found to be comparable with the gap between the Paris Agreement goals and the voluntary (unconditional) nationally determined contributions to remain below a 2 °C global temperature increase. For the same period, projections for the percentage of renewable electricity exhibited maximum variations between 51% and 96%, signaling a huge underestimation. We discuss the significance of overestimating energy demand and underestimating the rate of renewable energy implementation in the context of 2030 climate and energy policy targets, as well as desirable methodological changes to energy modeling under aggressive climate mitigation policies.

Keywords: energy system modeling; climate change mitigation; global and regional energy projections; nationally determined contributions; integrated energy system planning (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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