Sustainable Determinants That Affect Tourist Arrival Forecasting

Sergej Gricar, Tea Baldigara and Violeta Šugar
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Sergej Gricar: Faculty of Business and Management, University of Novo Mesto, Na Loko 2, 8000 Novo Mesto, Slovenia
Tea Baldigara: Faculty of Tourism and Hospitality Management, University of Rijeka, Primorska 46, p.p. 97, 51410 Opatija, Croatia
Violeta Šugar: Faculty of Economics and Tourism “Dr. Mijo Mirković”, Juraj Dobrila University of Pula, Zagrebačka 30, 52100 Pula, Croatia

Sustainability, 2021, vol. 13, issue 17, 1-24

Abstract: This study considers diversification effects and significant influences on tourist arrivals as a vital export direction. Different quantitative methods, namely a cointegrated-autoregressive model, panels, sentiment and sensitivity analysis, were used in this study. The time-series data for Croatia and Slovenia were isolated from several secondary sources. The variables examined in this approach are tourist arrivals, precipitations, sunny days, earthquakes, microbes and CO 2 emissions. The study results showed that there is a severe negative effect on tourist arrivals defined by viruses. Moreover, there is a significant decisive effect of weather conditions on tourist arrivals. Nevertheless, it is necessary to move past Covid-19 pandemic discussions to yield more accurate tourism supply forecasts, while demand is already somehow low since the beginning of 2020. The primary significance is to develop a broader thinking about the impacts of CO 2 emissions on the tourism escorted to official tourist websites.

Keywords: cointegration; Croatia; external factors; Slovenia; tourist arrivals; vector autoregressive model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (9)

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