Using Spatial Patterns of COVID-19 to Build a Framework for Economic Reactivation

Renato Quiliche, Rafael Rentería-Ramos, Irineu de Brito Junior, Ana Luna and Mario Chong
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Renato Quiliche: Facultad de Ingeniería, Universidad del Pacífico, Lima 150113, Peru
Rafael Rentería-Ramos: Escuela de Ciencias Básicas, Tecnologías e Ingenierías, Universidad Nacional Abierta y a Distancia, Bogotá 110311, Colombia
Irineu de Brito Junior: Environmental Engineering Department, Sao Paulo State University, Sao Jose dos Campos 12247-004, Brazil
Ana Luna: Facultad de Ingeniería, Universidad del Pacífico, Lima 150113, Peru
Mario Chong: Facultad de Ingeniería, Universidad del Pacífico, Lima 150113, Peru

Sustainability, 2021, vol. 13, issue 18, 1-23

Abstract: In this article, we propose an application of humanitarian logistics theory to build a supportive framework for economic reactivation and pandemic management based on province vulnerability against COVID-19. The main research question is which factors are related to COVID-19 mortality between Peruvian provinces? We conduct a spatial regression analysis to explore which factors determine the differences in COVID-19 cumulative mortality rates for 189 Peruvian provinces up to December 2020. The most vulnerable provinces are characterized by having low outcomes of long-run poverty and high population density. Low poverty means high economic activity, which leads to more deaths due to COVID-19. There is a lack of supply in the set of relief goods defined as Pandemic Response and Recovery Supportive Goods and Services (PRRSGS). These goods must be delivered in order to mitigate the risk associated with COVID-19. A supportive framework for economic reactivation can be built based on regression results and a delivery strategy can be discussed according to the spatial patterns that we found for mortality rates.

Keywords: humanitarian logistics; pandemic; economic reactivation; spatial modelling (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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