The Impact on Carbon Emissions of China with the Trade Situation versus the U.S

Jieming Chou, Fan Yang, Zhongxiu Wang and Wenjie Dong
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Jieming Chou: State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
Fan Yang: State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
Zhongxiu Wang: The Alliance of International Science Organizations, Beijing 100085, China
Wenjie Dong: Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai), Zhuhai 519080, China

Sustainability, 2021, vol. 13, issue 18, 1-15

Abstract: The China–US trade conflict will inevitably have a negative impact on China’s trade imports and exports, industrial development, and economic growth, and will affect the achievement of climate change goals. In the short term, the impact of the trade conflict on China’s import and export trade will cause the carbon emissions contained in traded commodities to change accordingly. To assess the impact of the trade conflict on China’s climate policy, this paper combines a model from the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) and the input–output analysis method and calculates the carbon emissions in international trade before and after the conflict. The conclusions are as follows: (1) The trade war has led to a sharp decline in China–US trade, but for China as a whole, imports and exports have not changed much; (2) China’s export emissions have changed little, its import emissions have dropped slightly, and its net emissions have increased; and (3) China’s exports are still concentrated in energy-intensive industries. Changes in trade will bring challenges to China’s balancing of climate and trade exigencies. China–US cooperation based on energy and technology will help China cope with climate change after the trade conflict.

Keywords: trade conflict; carbon emissions; import and export trade; cooperative emission reduction (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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