Locomotion of Slope Geohazards Responding to Climate Change in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau and Its Adjacent Regions

Yiru Jia, Jifu Liu, Lanlan Guo, Zhifei Deng, Jiaoyang Li and Hao Zheng
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Yiru Jia: Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster, Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergence Management, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
Jifu Liu: Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster, Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergence Management, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
Lanlan Guo: Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
Zhifei Deng: Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
Jiaoyang Li: Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
Hao Zheng: Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China

Sustainability, 2021, vol. 13, issue 19, 1-16

Abstract: Slope geohazards, which cause significant social, economic and environmental losses, have been increasing worldwide over the last few decades. Climate change-induced higher temperatures and shifted precipitation patterns enhance the slope geohazard risks. This study traced the spatial transference of slope geohazards in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) and investigated the potential climatic factors. The results show that 93% of slope geohazards occurred in seasonally frozen regions, 2.6% of which were located in permafrost regions, with an average altitude of 3818 m. The slope geohazards are mainly concentrated at 1493–1988 m. Over time, the altitude of the slope geohazards was gradually increased, and the mean altitude tended to spread from 1984 m to 2562 m by 2009, while the slope gradient varied only slightly. The number of slope geohazards increased with time and was most obvious in spring, especially in the areas above an altitude of 3000 m. The increase in temperature and precipitation in spring may be an important reason for this phenomenon, because the results suggest that the rate of air warming and precipitation at geohazard sites increased gradually. Based on the observation of the spatial location, altitude and temperature growth rate of slope geohazards, it is noted that new geohazard clusters (NGCs) appear in the study area, and there is still a possibility of migration under the future climate conditions. Based on future climate forecast data, we estimate that the low-, moderate- and high-sensitivity areas of the QTP will be mainly south of 30° N in 2030, will extend to the south of 33° N in 2060 and will continue to expand to the south of 35° N in 2099; we also estimate that the proportion of high-sensitivity areas will increase from 10.93% in 2030 to 14.17% in 2060 and 17.48% in 2099.

Keywords: Qinghai-Tibet Plateau; climate change; slope geohazards; new geohazard clusters (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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