A TOPSIS—Risk Matrix and Monte Carlo Expert System for Risk Assessment in Engineering Projects

Georgios K. Koulinas, Olympia E. Demesouka, Konstantinos A. Sidas and Dimitrios E. Koulouriotis
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Georgios K. Koulinas: Department of Production and Management Engineering, Democritus University of Thrace, 12 Vas. Sofias St., 67100 Xanthi, Greece
Olympia E. Demesouka: Department of Production and Management Engineering, Democritus University of Thrace, 12 Vas. Sofias St., 67100 Xanthi, Greece
Konstantinos A. Sidas: Department of Engineering Project Management, Faculty of Science & Technology, Hellenic Open University, Parodos Aristotelous 18 St., 26335 Patra, Greece
Dimitrios E. Koulouriotis: Department of Production and Management Engineering, Democritus University of Thrace, 12 Vas. Sofias St., 67100 Xanthi, Greece

Sustainability, 2021, vol. 13, issue 20, 1-14

Abstract: In this paper, we propose a process that combines the Risk Matrix approach with the Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) and the Monte Carlo Simulation for assessing risk factors that have an impact on the duration of a construction project’s activities and predict if it is feasible to terminate the project within the prescribed deadlines. Initially, we identified the risks affecting each task of the specific project, and then, we applied the risk matrix approach for determining the probability and impact of every risk to each activity. The resulting ranking is used to assign uncertainty to activities’ durations and estimate the probability of on-time project completion, employing the Monte Carlo Simulation approach. The main contribution of this paper is the development of an innovative framework that coordinates an established qualitative and quantitative risk classification approach, with a popular multicriteria method and a powerful simulation approach, to effectively predict time deviations while executing complex construction projects under uncertainty. The proposed framework was applied to estimate the possibility of a timely execution of an artificial lake real project on the island of Alonissos, Greece. The analysis results illustrate that this approach clearly could help the project risk manager proactively perform risk mitigation measures while allocating budget and programming a project with a significant impact on the quality of life of residents and tourists of a small island.

Keywords: TOPSIS; risk matrix; schedule analysis; uncertainty; Monte Carlo Simulation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

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