Understanding Complex Relationships between Human Well-Being and Land Use Change in Mozambique Using a Multi-Scale Participatory Scenario Planning Process

Pedro Zorrilla-Miras, Estrella López-Moya, Marc J. Metzger, Genevieve Patenaude, Almeida Sitoe, Mansour Mahamane, Sá Nogueira Lisboa, James S. Paterson and Elena López-Gunn
Additional contact information
Pedro Zorrilla-Miras: I-Catalist S.L. C/Borni 20, Las Rozas, 28232 Madrid, Spain
Estrella López-Moya: I-Catalist S.L. C/Borni 20, Las Rozas, 28232 Madrid, Spain
Marc J. Metzger: School of GeoSciences, The University of Edinburgh, Drummond Street, Edinburgh EH8 9XP, UK
Genevieve Patenaude: School of GeoSciences, The University of Edinburgh, Drummond Street, Edinburgh EH8 9XP, UK
Almeida Sitoe: Faculty of Agronomy and Forest Engineering, Eduardo Mondlane University, Maputo P.O. Box 257, Mozambique
Mansour Mahamane: Centre Régional AGRHYMET, Université de Diffa, Niamey BP 11011, Niger
Sá Nogueira Lisboa: Faculty of Agronomy and Forest Engineering, Eduardo Mondlane University, Maputo P.O. Box 257, Mozambique
James S. Paterson: School of GeoSciences, The University of Edinburgh, Drummond Street, Edinburgh EH8 9XP, UK
Elena López-Gunn: I-Catalist S.L. C/Borni 20, Las Rozas, 28232 Madrid, Spain

Sustainability, 2021, vol. 13, issue 23, 1-21

Abstract: The path for bringing millions of people out of poverty in Africa is likely to coincide with important changes in land use and land cover (LULC). Envisioning the different possible pathways for agricultural, economic and social development, and their implications for changes in LULC, ecosystem services and society well-being, will improve policy-making. This paper presents a case that uses a multi-scale participatory scenario planning method to facilitate the understanding of the complex interactions between LULC change and the wellbeing of the rural population and their possible future evolution in Mozambique up to 2035. Key drivers of change were identified: the empowerment of civil society, the effective application of legislation and changes in rural technologies (e.g., information and communications technologies and renewable energy sources). Three scenarios were constructed: one characterized by the government promoting large investments; a second scenario characterized by the increase in local community power and public policies to promote small and medium enterprises; and a third, intermediate scenario. All three scenarios highlight qualitative large LULC changes, either driven by large companies or by small and medium scale farmers. The scenarios have different impact in wellbeing and equity, the first one implying a higher rural to urban area migration. The results also show that the effective application of the law can produce different results, from assuring large international investments to assuring the improvement of social services like education, health care and extension services. Successful application of these policies, both for biodiversity and ecosystem services protection, and for the social services needed to improve the well-being of the Mozambican rural population, will have to overcome significant barriers.

Keywords: multi-scale scenarios; participatory scenario planning; social-ecological system; poverty alleviation; land use change; nature’s contributions to people; Mozambique (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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