Cross-Validation of the MEDEAS Energy-Economy-Environment Model with the Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System (TIMES) and the Long-Range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP)

Ilaria Perissi, Gianluca Martelloni, Ugo Bardi, Davide Natalini, Aled Jones, Angel Nikolaev, Lukas Eggler, Martin Baumann, Roger Samsó and Jordi Solé
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Ilaria Perissi: Consorzio Interuniversitario Nazionale per la Scienza e la Tecnologia dei Materiali (INSTM), c/o Dipartimento di Chimica, Università degli Studi di Firenze, Via della Lastruccia 3, 50019 Sesto Fiorentino, Firenze, Italy
Gianluca Martelloni: Consorzio Interuniversitario Nazionale per la Scienza e la Tecnologia dei Materiali (INSTM), c/o Dipartimento di Chimica, Università degli Studi di Firenze, Via della Lastruccia 3, 50019 Sesto Fiorentino, Firenze, Italy
Ugo Bardi: Consorzio Interuniversitario Nazionale per la Scienza e la Tecnologia dei Materiali (INSTM), c/o Dipartimento di Chimica, Università degli Studi di Firenze, Via della Lastruccia 3, 50019 Sesto Fiorentino, Firenze, Italy
Davide Natalini: Global Sustainability Institute, Anglia Ruskin University, East Road, Cambridge CB1-1PT, UK
Aled Jones: Global Sustainability Institute, Anglia Ruskin University, East Road, Cambridge CB1-1PT, UK
Angel Nikolaev: Black Sea Energy Research Centre, 7 Victor Grigorovich Str., 1606 Sofia, Bulgaria
Lukas Eggler: Austrian Energy Agency (AEA), Mariahilfer Straße 136, 1150 Wien, Austria
Martin Baumann: Austrian Energy Agency (AEA), Mariahilfer Straße 136, 1150 Wien, Austria
Roger Samsó: Centre de Recerca Ecològica i Aplicacions Forestals (CREAF), Campus de Bellaterra UAB, Edifici C, 08193 Barcelona, Spain
Jordi Solé: Departament d’Enginyeria Mecànica, Universitat Rovira i Virgili (URV), Campus Sescelades, Avinguda dels Països Catalans, 26, 43007 Tarragona, Spain

Sustainability, 2021, vol. 13, issue 4, 1-27

Abstract: In the present study, we compare energy transition scenarios from a new set of integrated assessment models, the suite of MEDEAS models, based on a systems dynamic modeling approach, with scenarios from two already well know structurally and conceptually different integrated assessment models, the Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System (TIMES) and the Long-Range Energy Alternatives Planning system (LEAP). The investigation was carried out to cross-compare and benchmark the response of MEDEAS models with TIMES and LEAP in depicting the energy transition in two different countries, Austria and Bulgaria. The preliminary results show a good agreement across all the models in representing scenarios projecting historical trends, while a major discrepancy is detectable when the rate of implementation of renewable energy is forced to increase to achieve energy system decarbonization. The discrepancy is mainly traceable to the differences in the models’ conception and structures rather than in a real mismatch in representing the same scenarios. The present study is put forward as a guideline for validating new modeling approaches that link energy policy decision tools to the global biophysical and socioeconomic constraints.

Keywords: energy model; system dynamics; energy transition; decarbonization pathways; benchmarking (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

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