Assessing the Impacts of Climate Variations on the Potato Production in Bangladesh: A Supply and Demand Model Approach

Arifa Jannat, Yuki Ishikawa-Ishiwata and Jun Furuya
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Arifa Jannat: Graduate School of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Tsukuba, 1-1-1 Tennodai, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8572, Japan
Yuki Ishikawa-Ishiwata: Global and Local Environment Co-Creation Institute (GLEC), Ibaraki University, 2-1-1 Bunkyo, Mito-city, Ibaraki 310-8512, Japan
Jun Furuya: Social Sciences Division, Japan International Research Center for Agricultural Sciences, 1-1 Owashi, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8686, Japan

Sustainability, 2021, vol. 13, issue 9, 1-22

Abstract: From the perspective of nutritional security, we investigated the influence of climate change on potato production in Bangladesh using a supply and demand model by considering the potato as an important non-cereal food crop. To provide an outlook on the variation in potato supplies and market prices under changing climatic factors (temperature, rainfall, and solar-radiation), the yield, area, import, and demand functions were assessed using district-level time-series data of Bangladesh (1988–2013), disaggregated into seven climatic zones. Results suggest that temperatures above or below the optimal range (18–22 °C) lowered yields. Little rainfall and low solar radiation hinder potato cultivation areas during the potato maturity stage. During the simulated period, the annual production was projected to rise from 88 to 111 million metric tons (MT), with an equilibrium farm price of 155 to 215 US dollars MT ?1 . Between 2014 and 2030, the nation’s per-capita potato intake is expected to increase from 49 to 55 kg year ?1 because of changing dietary patterns. According to the estimated equilibrator, scenario simulations that incorporated various dimensions of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios indicate that potato production and consumption can increase in the future.

Keywords: climate change; econometric model; outlook; potato market (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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