Multi-Scenario Dynamic Simulation of Urban Agglomeration Development on the Northern Slope of the Tianshan Mountains in Xinjiang, China, with the Goal of High-Quality Urban Construction

Dongbing Li, Yao Chang, Zibibula Simayi and Shengtian Yang
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Dongbing Li: School of Geographical Sciences, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830049, China
Yao Chang: School of Geographical Sciences, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830049, China
Zibibula Simayi: School of Geographical Sciences, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830049, China
Shengtian Yang: School of Geography and Remote Sensing Sciences, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China

Sustainability, 2022, vol. 14, issue 11, 1-19

Abstract: The construction of high-quality urban agglomeration has become a guiding strategy for future urban development. Based on the current development status of urban agglomeration on the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains, the concepts of environmental protection, harmonious coexistence, and sustainable development were combined in the present study. Land cover data for 2010 and 2020 as well as data on various driving factors and limiting factors were selected to simulate and forecast the land change of the urban agglomeration under environmental constraints. At the same time, to simulate the natural development scenario, farmland protection scenario, and ecological protection scenario for the land development of urban agglomeration on the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains in 2030, the future land use simulation and Markov (FLUS-Markov) model and the urban growth boundary (UGB) model were combined. The following conclusions may be drawn from the results. (1) Using the land cover in 2010 to simulate the land cover in 2020, the kappa value was 0.724, the overall accuracy was 82.9%, and the FOM value was 0.245, exhibiting a high accuracy. (2) Under the three scenarios, the degree of expansion varied significantly from 2020 to 2030, but the proportion of construction area remained stable at 3%. Under the natural development scenario, urban land expansion was the most obvious, followed by the farmland protection scenario, while under the ecological protection scenario, construction land expansion was the least obvious. (3) Under the three scenarios, the expansion of construction land was mainly dominated by the encroachment of grassland, and the edge expansion mode was characterized by concentrated contiguous land. (4) The kernel density results show that the urban area exhibited a year-by-year expansion, and the best suitable development area was the surrounding farmland. (5) Under the three scenarios, the delineation of UGB in urban agglomeration at the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains was reasonable and effective, and it can provide a relevant reference for the government’s future urban development and layout planning.

Keywords: high-quality urban agglomeration; FLUS-Markov model; multi-scenario description; characteristics of urban land use; UGB (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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