Evaluation of the Resilience of the Socio-Hydrological System of the Tarim River Basin in China and Analysis of the Degree of Barriers

Ning Pang, Xiaoya Deng, Aihua Long, Lili Zhang and Xinchen Gu
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Ning Pang: Xinjiang Production and Construction Group Key Laboratory of Modern Water-Saving Irrigation, College of Water and Architectural Engineering, Shihezi University, Shihezi 832000, China
Xiaoya Deng: State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100044, China
Aihua Long: Xinjiang Production and Construction Group Key Laboratory of Modern Water-Saving Irrigation, College of Water and Architectural Engineering, Shihezi University, Shihezi 832000, China
Lili Zhang: Xinjiang Production and Construction Group Key Laboratory of Modern Water-Saving Irrigation, College of Water and Architectural Engineering, Shihezi University, Shihezi 832000, China
Xinchen Gu: State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100044, China

Sustainability, 2022, vol. 14, issue 13, 1-20

Abstract: The study of changes in the resilience of socio-hydrological systems in arid zones is of great significance to ensure the sustainable development of socio-economic and water resources in arid zones. In order to fully understand the level of resilience development of the Tarim River Basin socio-hydrological system and the main impediments to its development, we constructed a resilience evaluation model of the Tarim River Basin socio-hydrological system from two aspects, vulnerability and adaptability, which is what makes this paper different from other studies. The evaluation index weights were determined using a comprehensive assignment, and the barrier factors and evolutionary characteristics of the system resilience were revealed based on the TOPSIS algorithm and barrier degree model. The results show that (1) during the period 2001–2020, the resilience of the socio-hydrological system in the Tarim River Basin showed a fluctuating upward trend, with the calculated values mainly in the range of 0.8–1.5, and the overall resilience level was mainly at the medium or good level; (2) from the changes in each criterion layer, the vulnerability and adaptability of the Tarim River Basin showed a fluctuating upward trend from 2001 to 2020, with an increase in vulnerability and adaptability; and (3) the main barriers to the resilience of the socio-hydrological system in the Tarim River Basin are the degree of pollution of surface water sources and the amount of water consumption per 10,000 yuan of GDP. We believe that we should continue to change the economic development model, vigorously develop water-saving irrigation technology, improve water resource utilisation and economic benefits, and improve the overall resilience of the socio-hydrological system. A full understanding of the evolutionary characteristics of the resilience of socio-hydrological systems and the main influencing factors can provide a theoretical basis for future water resources development and utilisation, socio-economic development, and related policy formulation.

Keywords: social hydrological system; resilience evaluation; stochastic algorithms; TOPSIS algorithm; barrier degree analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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