Geospatial Analysis of Land Use/Cover Change and Land Surface Temperature for Landscape Risk Pattern Change Evaluation of Baghdad City, Iraq, Using CA–Markov and ANN Models

Wafaa Majeed Mutashar Al-Hameedi, Jie Chen, Cheechouyang Faichia, Biswajit Nath, Bazel Al-Shaibah and Ali Al-Aizari
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Wafaa Majeed Mutashar Al-Hameedi: School of Geosciences and Info-Physics, Central South University, Changsha 410083, China
Jie Chen: School of Geosciences and Info-Physics, Central South University, Changsha 410083, China
Cheechouyang Faichia: Institute of Natural Disaster Research, School of Environment, Northeast Normal University, Changchun 130024, China
Biswajit Nath: Department of Geography and Environmental Studies, Faculty of Biological Sciences, University of Chittagong, Chittagong 4331, Bangladesh
Bazel Al-Shaibah: Institute of Natural Disaster Research, School of Environment, Northeast Normal University, Changchun 130024, China
Ali Al-Aizari: Institute of Natural Disaster Research, School of Environment, Northeast Normal University, Changchun 130024, China

Sustainability, 2022, vol. 14, issue 14, 1-31

Abstract: Understanding future landscape risk pattern change (FLRPC) scenarios will help people manage and utilize natural resources. In this study, we have selected a variety of landscape and anthropogenic factors as risk parameters for FLRPC assessment. Land use/cover change (LUCC) and land surface temperature (LST) are regarded as significant factors that have resulted in large-scale environmental changes. Result analysis of the previous LUCC from 1985 to 2020 showed that construction land and water body (WB) increased by 669.09 and 183.16 km 2 , respectively. The study continues to predict future LUCC from 2030 to 2050, in which the result has shown that a large land use conversion occurred during the future prediction period. In addition, the LST forecasting analysis illustrated that the previous LST maximum and minimum are 38 °C and 15 °C, which will be increased to 40.83 °C and 26.25 °C in the future, respectively. Finally, the study used the weighted overlay method for the FLRPC analysis, which applies analytic hierarchy process techniques for risk evaluation. The FLRPC result demonstrated that Baghdad City is in the low-risk and medium-risk to high-risk categories from 2020 to 2050, while AL and BL are in the very-high-risk categories. Meanwhile, WB and NG have always been safe, falling into the very-low-risk and low-risk categories from 2020 to 2050. Therefore, this study has successfully assessed the Baghdad metropolitan area and made recommendations for future urban development for a more safe, resilient, and sustainable development.

Keywords: remote sensing; GIS; ANN model; CA−Markov model; LUCC Projection; LST forecasting; landscape risk pattern change; Iraq (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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