Integrated Stochastic Life Cycle Assessment and Techno-Economic Analysis for Shrub Willow Production in the Northeastern United States

Jenny Frank, Obste Therasme, Timothy A. Volk, Tristan Brown, Robert W. Malmsheimer, Marie-Odile Fortier, Mark H. Eisenbies, HakSoo Ha and Justin Heavey
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Jenny Frank: Department of Sustainable Resources Management, State University of New York College of Environmental Science and Forestry, Syracuse, NY 13210, USA
Obste Therasme: Department of Sustainable Resources Management, State University of New York College of Environmental Science and Forestry, Syracuse, NY 13210, USA
Timothy A. Volk: Department of Sustainable Resources Management, State University of New York College of Environmental Science and Forestry, Syracuse, NY 13210, USA
Tristan Brown: Department of Sustainable Resources Management, State University of New York College of Environmental Science and Forestry, Syracuse, NY 13210, USA
Robert W. Malmsheimer: Department of Sustainable Resources Management, State University of New York College of Environmental Science and Forestry, Syracuse, NY 13210, USA
Marie-Odile Fortier: Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering and Construction, University of Nevada, Las Vegas, NV 89154, USA
Mark H. Eisenbies: Department of Sustainable Resources Management, State University of New York College of Environmental Science and Forestry, Syracuse, NY 13210, USA
HakSoo Ha: Department of Sustainable Resources Management, State University of New York College of Environmental Science and Forestry, Syracuse, NY 13210, USA
Justin Heavey: Department of Sustainable Resources Management, State University of New York College of Environmental Science and Forestry, Syracuse, NY 13210, USA

Sustainability, 2022, vol. 14, issue 15, 1-19

Abstract: The refereed literature contains few studies that analyze life cycle assessment (LCA) and techno-economic analysis (TEA) methodologies together for lignocellulosic bioenergy systems, using a stochastic modeling approach. This study seeks to address this gap by developing an integrated framework to quantify the environmental and financial impacts of producing and delivering shrub willow in the Northeastern United States. This study analyses four different scenarios from a combination of two different initial land cover types (grassland, cropland) prior to willow establishment, and two harvesting conditions (leaf-on, leaf-off). Monte Carlo simulations were performed to quantify the uncertainty of the results based on a range of financial, logistical, and biophysical variable input parameters (e.g., land rental rates, transportation distance, biomass yield, etc.). Growing willow biomass on croplands resulted in net negative GHG emissions for both leaf on and leaf off scenarios for the baseline. The GHG emissions were lowest for the leaf-off harvest on cropland (−172.50 kg CO 2eq Mg −1 ); this scenario also had the lowest MSP ($76.41 Mg −1 ). The baseline grassland scenario with leaf-on harvest, results in the highest net GHG emissions (44.83 kg CO 2eq Mg −1 ) and greatest MSP ($92.97 Mg −1 ). The results of this analysis provide the bioenergy field and other interested stakeholders with both environmental and financial trade-offs of willow biomass to permit informed decisions about the future expansion of willow fields in the landscape, which have the potential to contribute to GHG reduction targets and conversion into fuels, energy, or bioproducts for carbon sequestration and financial benefits.

Keywords: life cycle assessment; techno-economic analysis; biomass; shrub willow; greenhouse gas emissions; climate change; minimum selling price (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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