Comparison between CMIP5 and CMIP6 Models over MENA Region Using Historical Simulations and Future Projections

Mohammed Magdy Hamed (), Mohamed Salem Nashwan, Mohammed Sanusi Shiru and Shamsuddin Shahid
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Mohammed Magdy Hamed: Construction and Building Engineering Department, College of Engineering and Technology, Arab Academy for Science, Technology and Maritime Transport (AASTMT), B 2401 Smart Village, Giza 12577, Egypt
Mohamed Salem Nashwan: Construction and Building Engineering Department, College of Engineering and Technology, Arab Academy for Science, Technology and Maritime Transport (AASTMT), Elhorria, Cairo P.O. Box 2033, Egypt
Mohammed Sanusi Shiru: Department of Environmental Sciences, Faculty of Science, Federal University Dutse, P.M.B, Dutse 7156, Nigeria
Shamsuddin Shahid: Department of Water and Environmental Engineering, School of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (UTM), Skudia 81310, Johor, Malaysia

Sustainability, 2022, vol. 14, issue 16, 1-20

Abstract: The study evaluated the ability of 11 global climate models of the latest two versions of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5 and CMIP6) to simulate observed (1965–2005) rainfall, maximum (T max ) and minimum (T min ) temperatures, mean eastward (uas) and northward (vas) wind speed, and mean surface pressure. It also evaluated relative uncertainty in projections of climate variables using those two CMIPs. The European reanalysis (ERA5) data were used as the reference to evaluate the performance of the GCMs and their mean and median multimodel ensembles (MME). The study revealed less bias in CMIP6 GCMs than CMIP5 GCMs in simulating most climate variables. The biases in rainfall, T max , T min , uas, vas, and surface pressure were −55 mm, 0.28 °C, −0.11 °C, −0.25 m/s, −0.06 m/s, and −0.038 Kpa for CMIP6 compared to −65 mm, 0.07 °C, −0.87 °C, −0.41 m/s, −0.05 m/s, and 0.063 Kpa for CMIP5. The uncertainty in CMIP6 projections of rainfall, T max , T min , uas, vas, and wind speed was relative more narrow than those for CMIP5. The projections showed a higher increase in T min than T max by 0.64 °C, especially in the central region. Besides, rainfall in most parts of MENA would increase; however, it might decrease by 50 mm in the coastal regions. The study revealed the better ability of CMIP6 GCMs for a wide range of climatic studies.

Keywords: GCM; climate change; uncertainty; coupled model intercomparison project; seasonal variability (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

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