The Sustainability of International Trade: The Impact of Ongoing Military Conflicts, Infrastructure, Common Language, and Economic Wellbeing in Post-Soviet Region

Inna Čábelková (), Lubos Smutka, Svitlana Rotterova, Olesya Zhytna, Vít Kluger and David Mareš
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Inna Čábelková: Department of Trade and Finance, Faculty of Economics and Management, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Kamycká 129, 16500 Prague, Czech Republic
Svitlana Rotterova: Department of Trade and Finance, Faculty of Economics and Management, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Kamycká 129, 16500 Prague, Czech Republic
Olesya Zhytna: Department of Trade and Finance, Faculty of Economics and Management, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Kamycká 129, 16500 Prague, Czech Republic
Vít Kluger: Department of Trade and Finance, Faculty of Economics and Management, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Kamycká 129, 16500 Prague, Czech Republic
David Mareš: Department of Trade and Finance, Faculty of Economics and Management, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Kamycká 129, 16500 Prague, Czech Republic

Sustainability, 2022, vol. 14, issue 17, 1-14

Abstract: The sustainability of international trade is subject to immense pressure. Apart from obstructed logistics, disruption of production chains and changes in demand, the sustainability of international trade is heavily affected by the sanctions caused by the Russia–Ukraine conflict. This paper studies the factors predicting sustainable international trade in the post-Soviet region. We hypothesize that ongoing conflicts, infrastructure, language integration, geographical proximity, common border, and economic wellbeing significantly impact international trade. Methodologically we rely on linear and hierarchical regressions estimating a set of gravitation models (N = 15 countries—104 trading pairs; 2010–2020). The results suggest that Russian as a primary language and the average density of road networks positively predict bilateral trade volume. The geographical distance, infrastructure differences, military conflicts, and, surprisingly, the pair-average GDP per capita diminish bilateral trade. Countries’ GDP mediates the effect of GDP per capita. The results are robust over time. The results present an important insight into sustainable international trade within the region affected by the numerous military conflicts in the past and the war conflict between Russia and Ukraine nowadays. The rebuilding of Ukrainian transport infrastructure is one of the essential measures from the country’s point of view and a factor supporting internationally sustainable food supply.

Keywords: post-Soviet region; military conflict; international trade; sustainability; gravitation models (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:14:y:2022:i:17:p:10840-:d:902510

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