Partisan Conflict, National Security Policy Uncertainty and Tourism

Rufei Zhang, Haizhen Zhang, Qingzhu Fan (), Wang Gao (), Xue Luo and Shixiong Yang
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Rufei Zhang: Research Center of Natural Resources Assets, Hebei GEO University, Shijiazhuang 050031, China
Haizhen Zhang: School of Economics, Hebei GEO University, Shijiazhuang 050031, China
Qingzhu Fan: School of Finance, Hebei University of Economics and Business, Shijiazhuang 050061, China
Wang Gao: Research Center for Finance and Enterprise Innovation, Hebei University of Economics and Business, Shijiazhuang 050061, China
Xue Luo: School of Economics, Hebei GEO University, Shijiazhuang 050031, China
Shixiong Yang: School of Statistics, Renmin University of China, Beijing 100872, China

Sustainability, 2022, vol. 14, issue 17, 1-22

Abstract: This study investigates the spillover effects among partisan conflict, national security policy uncertainty and tourism (i.e., tourist arrivals, exports, and stock) in the U.S. by using the TVP-VAR-based connectedness measures. Specifically, we discuss the association strength, spillover direction and dynamic linkages among the three under this framework. The results show that partisan conflict and national security policy uncertainty are net transmitters of spillovers to tourism, and those effects are more potent for inbound tourism demand than tourism stock performance. Moreover, the magnitude of spillovers among the three is time-varying and increases significantly in times of crisis, especially during the 9/11 attacks, the global financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. Our results have important implications for tourism managers to develop sustainable development strategies to buffer or adapt to the uncertainty impact.

Keywords: partisan conflict; national security policy uncertainty; tourism; TVP-VAR-based connectedness (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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