A System Dynamic Analysis of Urban Development Paths under Carbon Peaking and Carbon Neutrality Targets: A Case Study of Shanghai

Junwei Gao and Lingying Pan ()
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Junwei Gao: Business School, University of Shanghai for Science and Technology, Shanghai 200093, China
Lingying Pan: Business School, University of Shanghai for Science and Technology, Shanghai 200093, China

Sustainability, 2022, vol. 14, issue 22, 1-27

Abstract: In 2021, under the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality targets of China, Shanghai declared that it would peak carbon emissions by 2025. This would require the formulation of specific and effective implementation paths of low-carbon development. This paper conducts a dynamic study on Shanghai’s carbon dioxide emissions by establishing a system dynamic model of Shanghai’s economy-energy-carbon emission. It studies the implementation path of Shanghai’s carbon peaking and carbon neutrality targets by scenario analysis. The results show that under the Baseline Scenario, Shanghai’s carbon emissions will peak by 2035, which is later than what the government promised. However, the Carbon-Peak and Deep-Low-Carbon Scenarios suggest that Shanghai can achieve the carbon peaking target in 2025, and the CO 2 emission intensity will drop by 89.2% and 92.4%, respectively, by 2060. Improving the industrial energy utilization efficiency and the proportion of clean electricity is crucial for Shanghai to reduce carbon emissions. The transportation sector will become the main sector of urban energy consumption in the late stage of carbon neutralization. Without considering carbon sinks, the costs of achieving carbon neutrality for the three scenarios are approximately 5.68 billion, 2.79 billion and 1.96 billion USD, respectively. Finally, this paper puts forward relevant suggestions on promoting the transformation of energy structure, and strengthening specific emission reduction measures of various departments, to provide references for Shanghai’s policy formulation.

Keywords: urban carbon emissions; carbon peaking; carbon neutrality; system dynamic model; path analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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